ScoreProb
First League Bulgaria Round 13 2026

Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse

Botev Plovdiv Home · Elo 1,539
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dunav Ruse Away · Elo 1,561
Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Botev Plovdiv win
Botev Plovdiv winPick
50.7%
Draw
23.9%
Dunav Ruse win
25.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

Botev Plovdiv history75 matches
Dunav Ruse history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Botev Plovdiv are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,539 against 1,561. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.44 goals a game over 75 matches for Botev Plovdiv, against 1.48 over 65 for Dunav Ruse.

  • Dunav Ruse concede fewer

    Botev Plovdiv concede 1.24 a game, Dunav Ruse 0.78.

  • Botev Plovdiv games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Botev Plovdiv matches, against 42% for Dunav Ruse. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Botev Plovdiv
Dunav Ruse@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1539.1
ELO
1560.6
75
ELO · Matches
65
1539.1
Current Team ELO
1560.6
1560.6
Current Opponent ELO
1539.1
-21.47
Current ELO Difference
21.47
0.47
Expected score
0.53
75
History Matches
65
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
52.82
Overperformance
52.84
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
65
1.35
PPG
1.74
37.3%
Win rate
47.7%
22.7%
Draw rate
30.8%
40.0%
Loss rate
21.5%
78.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
41.5%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
24.6%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
35
1.61
PPG
1.60
46.3%
Win rate
42.9%
22.0%
Draw rate
31.4%
31.7%
Loss rate
25.7%
80.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
29.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
41
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.48
72.0%
Scoring rate
76.9%
46.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.51
75.6%
Scoring rate
82.9%
43.9%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.83
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
75
History Matches
65
1.44
Goals Mean
1.48
1.39
Goals Std
1.22
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
38.7%
Scored 2+ rate
44.6%
17.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.51
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
0.78
66.7%
Conceding rate
49.2%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.03
63.4%
Conceding rate
62.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
65
1.24
Conceded Mean
0.78
1.22
Conceded Std
0.94
34.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.2%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
65
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
2.15
Goal Difference Std
1.66
2.53
Stability score
4.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
65
23
Lead Matches
25
78.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.85
19
Trailing Matches
11
5.3%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.05
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
28
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.17
PPG
0.50
33.3%
Win rate
16.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
83.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.17
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.17
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.65
1.76
Portability PPG Range
1.66
43.38
Portability Score
43.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-21.47
PPG-0.39
GF-0.04
GA0.46
PPG0.67
PPG0.01
PPG0.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.72
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.46
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches10
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score-2.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.85
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.83
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score-0.27
Rest days-2.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-21.47
Current Opponent ELO21.47
Current ELO Difference-42.94
Expected score-0.06
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Botev Plovdiv

W
Lokomotiv Sofia2–5Botev Plovdiv30 Oct · away
Pick: Botev Plovdiv 40% · hit
W
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas0–4Botev Plovdiv18 Oct · away
Pick: Botev Plovdiv 43% · hit
L
Botev Vratsa1–0Botev Plovdiv24 Aug · away
Pick: Botev Plovdiv 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dunav Ruse

W
Dunav Ruse2–0Spartak Varna24 Oct · home
Pick: Dunav Ruse 42% · hit
W
Rilski Sportist2–3Dunav Ruse17 Oct · away
Pick: Dunav Ruse 46% · hit
D
Dunav Ruse2–2Lokomotiv Sofia31 Aug · home
Pick: Dunav Ruse 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Botev Plovdiv and Dunav Ruse meet in First League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:15 UTC. The match is played at Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Botev Plovdiv win 50.7%, draw 23.9%, Dunav Ruse win 25.3%. The pick is Botev Plovdiv win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.