ScoreProb
First League Bulgaria Round 13 2026

Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia

Septemvri Sofia Home · Elo 1,477
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lokomotiv Sofia Away · Elo 1,492
Dragalevtsi Stadium,, Sofia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Septemvri Sofia win
Septemvri Sofia winPick
40.0%
Draw
28.7%
Lokomotiv Sofia win
31.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%

How much we know

Septemvri Sofia history76 matches
Lokomotiv Sofia history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (40.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Septemvri Sofia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,477 against 1,492. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Lokomotiv Sofia score more

    1.04 goals a game over 76 matches for Septemvri Sofia, against 1.46 over 70 for Lokomotiv Sofia.

  • Lokomotiv Sofia concede fewer

    Septemvri Sofia concede 1.64 a game, Lokomotiv Sofia 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Septemvri Sofia matches, against 54% for Lokomotiv Sofia. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.3
ELO
1492.0
76
ELO · Matches
70
1477.3
Current Team ELO
1492.0
1492.0
Current Opponent ELO
1477.3
-14.79
Current ELO Difference
14.79
0.48
Expected score
0.52
76
History Matches
70
0.00
Residual Mean
0.00
49.95
Overperformance
49.69
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
70
1.14
PPG
1.39
32.9%
Win rate
35.7%
15.8%
Draw rate
31.4%
51.3%
Loss rate
32.9%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
34
1.21
PPG
1.24
34.9%
Win rate
32.4%
16.3%
Draw rate
26.5%
48.8%
Loss rate
41.2%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
43
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.04
Goals for per game
1.46
65.8%
Scoring rate
77.1%
44.7%
BTTS rate
55.7%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.38
69.8%
Scoring rate
73.5%
46.5%
BTTS rate
52.9%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
70
1.04
Goals Mean
1.46
1.07
Goals Std
1.10
65.8%
Scored 1+ rate
77.1%
26.3%
Scored 2+ rate
44.3%
6.6%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.29
73.7%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.44
72.1%
Conceding rate
73.5%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
70
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.44
Conceded Std
1.12
48.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.6%
27.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
70
0.91
Result entropy
1.00
1.98
Goal Difference Std
1.59
9.02
Stability score
0.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
69
15
Lead Matches
21
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.84
29
Trailing Matches
21
13.8%
Non-loss rate
52.4%
3.4%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.96
Rest days
80.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
43
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
26
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
5
1.17
PPG
0.40
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
40.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.89
6
Current Competition Matches
5
1.17
Current Competition PPG
0.40
-0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.42
Portability PPG Range
1.43
76.86
Portability Score
49.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-14.79
PPG-0.24
GF-0.42
GA0.36
PPG0.77
PPG-0.03
PPG0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate11.4%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate13.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score8.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.39
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.77
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.17
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.36
Portability PPG Range-1.02
Portability Score27.51
Rest days-5.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.20
Current Team ELO-14.79
Current Opponent ELO14.79
Current ELO Difference-29.59
Expected score-0.04
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Septemvri Sofia

L
Arda Kardzhali2–1Septemvri Sofia2 Nov · away
Pick: Arda Kardzhali 62% · hit
L
Cherno More Varna2–0Septemvri Sofia27 Oct · away
Pick: Cherno More Varna 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lokomotiv Sofia

L
Lokomotiv Sofia2–5Botev Plovdiv30 Oct · home
Pick: Botev Plovdiv 40% · hit
D
Lokomotiv Sofia1–1Botev Vratsa24 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv Sofia 44% · missed
W
Vihren1–2Lokomotiv Sofia17 Oct · away
Pick: Vihren 37% · missed
D
Dunav Ruse2–2Lokomotiv Sofia31 Aug · away
Pick: Dunav Ruse 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia meet in First League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Dragalevtsi Stadium,, Sofia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Septemvri Sofia win 40.0%, draw 28.7%, Lokomotiv Sofia win 31.3%. The pick is Septemvri Sofia win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.6%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.