Braintree vs Kettering Town
Match result probability Model pick: Braintree win
Braintree winPick
43.6%
Draw
21.3%
Kettering Town win
35.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.1%
No47.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%
How much we know
Braintree history93 matches
Kettering Town history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Braintree
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Braintree are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Kettering Town are rated 198 Elo points higher
Elo 1,589 against 1,391. On rating alone Kettering Town would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.
-
Kettering Town score more
1.14 goals a game over 93 matches for Braintree, against 1.56 over 71 for Kettering Town.
-
Kettering Town concede fewer
Braintree concede 1.54 a game, Kettering Town 1.11.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
53% of Braintree matches, against 45% for Kettering Town. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kettering Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1391.1
ELO
1589.1
93
ELO · Matches
71
1391.1
Current Team ELO
1589.1
1589.1
Current Opponent ELO
1391.1
-198.0
Current ELO Difference
198.0
0.24
Expected score
0.76
93
History Matches
71
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.06
45.67
Overperformance
54.49
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
2.20
Goals against per game
0.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.90
1.70
Goals for per game
0.90
2.10
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals 90
93
Matches
71
1.08
PPG
1.69
28.0%
Win rate
47.9%
23.7%
Draw rate
25.4%
48.4%
Loss rate
26.8%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
52.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.1%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals 100
49
Matches
37
1.35
PPG
1.62
36.7%
Win rate
48.6%
24.5%
Draw rate
16.2%
38.8%
Loss rate
35.1%
65.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
49.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.5%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
49
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.14
Goals for per game
1.56
69.9%
Scoring rate
76.1%
53.8%
BTTS rate
46.5%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.49
67.3%
Scoring rate
78.4%
44.9%
BTTS rate
48.6%
93
History Matches
71
1.14
Goals Mean
1.56
0.99
Goals Std
1.36
69.9%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
32.3%
Scored 2+ rate
45.1%
10.8%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.49
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.54
Goals against per game
1.11
73.1%
Conceding rate
60.6%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.30
59.2%
Conceding rate
67.6%
93
History Matches
71
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.33
Conceded Std
1.22
46.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.2%
22.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.5%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
30.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
40.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
30.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
40.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
93
History Matches
71
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.84
4.55
Stability score
4.13
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
92
Eligible Matches
70
24
Lead Matches
23
70.8%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.84
26
Trailing Matches
18
7.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
3.8%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
92
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.92
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
72
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.01
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
8
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.13
1.67
Portability PPG Range
0.33
46.48
Portability Score
79.00
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
93
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-198.0
PPG-0.61
GF-0.42
GA0.42
PPG-0.27
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate6.2%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Failed-to-score rate11.0%
History Matches22
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.56
History Matches22
Conceded Mean0.42
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate18.1%
Conceded 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches22
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score0.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.01
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std0.44
Portability PPG Range1.34
Portability Score-32.51
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO-198.0
Current Opponent ELO198.0
Current ELO Difference-395.9
Expected score-0.52
History Matches22
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Braintree
L
Weston-super-Mare4–1Braintree7 Nov · away
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 58% · hit W
Braintree3–1Norwich City U213 Nov · home
Pick: Braintree 55% · hit W
Braintree1–0Hampton & Richmond31 Oct · home
Pick: Braintree 52% · hit W
Braintree2–1Dagenham & Redbridge27 Oct · home
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 40% · missed L
Farnham Town6–0Braintree24 Oct · away
Pick: Farnham Town 52% · hit Kettering Town
W
Kettering Town2–1Redditch United7 Nov · home
Pick: Kettering Town 49% · hit W
Bury Town2–3Kettering Town3 Nov · away
Pick: Bury Town 50% · missed L
Stourbridge4–1Kettering Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Stourbridge 40% · hit W
Kettering Town3–2Rushall Olympic27 Oct · home
Pick: Kettering Town 44% · hit W
Kettering Town6–2Quorn24 Oct · home
Pick: Kettering Town 53% · hit About this match
Braintree and Kettering Town meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Rare Breed Meat Co. Stadium, Braintree. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Braintree win 43.6%, draw 21.3%, Kettering Town win 35.1%. The pick is Braintree win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.9%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.