Bridlington Town vs Macclesfield
Match result probability Model pick: Macclesfield win
Bridlington Town win
23.5%
Draw
25.3%
Macclesfield winPick
51.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.6%
No40.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.568.4%
Under 2.531.6%
How much we know
Bridlington Town history36 matches
Macclesfield history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Macclesfield
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Macclesfield are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Macclesfield are rated 107 Elo points higher
Elo 1,642 against 1,535. On rating alone Macclesfield would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.92 goals a game over 36 matches for Bridlington Town, against 1.95 over 84 for Macclesfield.
-
Macclesfield concede fewer
Bridlington Town concede 1.47 a game, Macclesfield 1.18.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
64% of Bridlington Town matches, against 62% for Macclesfield. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Macclesfield@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1535.4
ELO
1642.2
36
ELO · Matches
84
1535.4
Current Team ELO
1642.2
1642.2
Current Opponent ELO
1535.4
-106.9
Current ELO Difference
106.9
0.35
Expected score
0.65
36
History Matches
84
0.05
Residual Mean
0.09
53.38
Overperformance
57.03
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.40
2.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
2.44
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
3.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals 90
36
Matches
84
1.64
PPG
2.00
47.2%
Win rate
61.9%
22.2%
Draw rate
14.3%
30.6%
Loss rate
23.8%
86.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.5%
63.9%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
39
1.58
PPG
1.77
47.4%
Win rate
51.3%
15.8%
Draw rate
23.1%
36.8%
Loss rate
25.6%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
52.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
3.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
19
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.92
Goals for per game
1.95
80.6%
Scoring rate
85.7%
52.8%
BTTS rate
60.7%
2.16
Goals for per game
1.85
78.9%
Scoring rate
87.2%
47.4%
BTTS rate
64.1%
36
History Matches
84
1.92
Goals Mean
1.95
1.71
Goals Std
1.43
80.6%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
61.1%
Scored 2+ rate
57.1%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
29.8%
2.16
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.47
Goals against per game
1.18
69.4%
Conceding rate
72.6%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.33
68.4%
Conceding rate
71.8%
36
History Matches
84
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.32
Conceded Std
1.08
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
36
History Matches
84
0.96
Result entropy
0.83
2.47
Goal Difference Std
1.87
4.35
Stability score
16.57
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
29
Eligible Matches
83
15
Lead Matches
28
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.94
9
Trailing Matches
19
33.3%
Non-loss rate
42.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
21.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
1.17
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.22
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
126.8
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
22
Normal Rest History Matches
67
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.09
10
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.54
Portability PPG Range
1.85
69.46
Portability Score
47.26
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
36
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-106.9
PPG-0.36
GF-0.04
GA0.29
PPG-0.19
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-48
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches-48
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate4.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std1.14
History Matches-48
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Conceded 2+ rate15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate11.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches-48
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.59
Stability score-12.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.00
Eligible Matches-54
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.21
Halftime Coverage Matches-54
First Half Goals For Mean0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-1.31
Portability Score22.20
Rest days42.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-45
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-106.9
Current Opponent ELO106.9
Current ELO Difference-213.7
Expected score-0.30
History Matches-48
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-3.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Bridlington Town
No earlier results with our pick yet
Macclesfield
L
Mansfield Town3–0Macclesfield7 Nov · away
Pick: Macclesfield 41% · missed W
Bedford Town0–3Macclesfield31 Oct · away
Pick: Macclesfield 49% · hit L
Macclesfield1–2Hereford24 Oct · home
Pick: Macclesfield 42% · missed D
Macclesfield1–1Anstey Nomads17 Oct · home
Pick: Macclesfield 57% · missed W
Macclesfield3–0Hebburn Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Macclesfield 43% · hit About this match
Bridlington Town and Macclesfield meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bridlington Town win 23.5%, draw 25.3%, Macclesfield win 51.2%. The pick is Macclesfield win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.4%. Both teams to score: 59.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.