ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niederrhein Germany Niederrhein - 12 2026

Büderich vs SW Essen

Büderich Home · Elo 1,515
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SW Essen Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Büderich win
Büderich winPick
54.1%
Draw
23.4%
SW Essen win
22.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes70.0%
No30.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.9%
Under 2.522.1%

How much we know

Büderich history52 matches
SW Essen history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Büderich are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Büderich are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,515 against 1,477. On rating alone Büderich would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Büderich score more

    2.25 goals a game over 52 matches for Büderich, against 1.75 over 53 for SW Essen.

  • SW Essen concede fewer

    Büderich concede 2.23 a game, SW Essen 1.89.

  • Büderich games more often go over 2.5 goals

    79% of Büderich matches, against 64% for SW Essen. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Büderich
SW Essen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.2
ELO
1477.0
52
ELO · Matches
53
1515.2
Current Team ELO
1477.0
1477.0
Current Opponent ELO
1515.2
38.17
Current ELO Difference
-38.17
0.55
Expected score
0.45
52
History Matches
53
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
51.53
Overperformance
47.96
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.00
3.80
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
4.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
3.20
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.20
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
53
1.48
PPG
1.47
42.3%
Win rate
43.4%
21.2%
Draw rate
17.0%
36.5%
Loss rate
39.6%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
78.8%
Over 2.5 rate
64.2%
67.3%
Over 3.5 rate
54.7%
2.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
28
1.54
PPG
1.43
42.9%
Win rate
42.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
32.1%
Loss rate
42.9%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
67.9%
Over 3.5 rate
46.4%
2.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
28
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.25
Goals for per game
1.75
86.5%
Scoring rate
81.1%
80.8%
BTTS rate
64.2%
2.39
Goals for per game
1.61
82.1%
Scoring rate
82.1%
78.6%
BTTS rate
64.3%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
53
2.25
Goals Mean
1.75
1.64
Goals Std
1.30
86.5%
Scored 1+ rate
81.1%
57.7%
Scored 2+ rate
52.8%
42.3%
Scored 3+ rate
28.3%
2.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.23
Goals against per game
1.89
88.5%
Conceding rate
75.5%
2.04
Goals against per game
2.00
89.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
4.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
53
2.23
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.81
Conceded Std
1.60
59.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
30.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.1%
2.04
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
2.56
Goal Difference Std
1.96
3.48
Stability score
6.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
53
21
Lead Matches
15
61.9%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.82
15
Trailing Matches
15
13.3%
Non-loss rate
6.7%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
1.08
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
1.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.21
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.83
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.79
72.73
Portability Score
55.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO38.17
PPG0.01
GF0.50
GA0.34
PPG1.00
PPG0.11
PPG2.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.50
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate5.4%
Scored 2+ rate4.9%
Scored 3+ rate14.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.83
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.60
Stability score-2.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score16.91
Rest days0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Current Team ELO38.17
Current Opponent ELO-38.17
Current ELO Difference76.35
Expected score0.11
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.41

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Büderich

L
Scherpenberg3–0Büderich25 Oct · away
Pick: Scherpenberg 43% · hit
D
Büderich0–0SF Baumberg16 Oct · home
Pick: Büderich 41% · missed
L
Büderich2–3Holzheimer SG4 Oct · home
Pick: Büderich 62% · missed
W
Büderich1–0Wuppertaler SV30 Aug · home
Pick: Büderich 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SW Essen

L
SW Essen1–4Schonnebeck24 Oct · home
Pick: Schonnebeck 66% · hit
L
Wuppertaler SV1–0SW Essen16 Oct · away
Pick: Wuppertaler SV 54% · hit
D
SW Essen1–1Sonsbeck30 Aug · home
Pick: Sonsbeck 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Büderich and SW Essen meet in Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Büderich win 54.1%, draw 23.4%, SW Essen win 22.5%. The pick is Büderich win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.9%. Both teams to score: 70.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.