ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niederrhein Germany Niederrhein - 12 2026

SC St. Tönis vs SF Baumberg

SC St. Tönis Home · Elo 1,514
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SF Baumberg Away · Elo 1,483
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SC St. Tönis win
SC St. Tönis winPick
44.1%
Draw
20.0%
SF Baumberg win
35.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes69.7%
No30.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.8%
Under 2.522.2%

How much we know

SC St. Tönis history55 matches
SF Baumberg history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why SC St. Tönis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SC St. Tönis are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,483. On rating alone SC St. Tönis would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • SC St. Tönis score more

    2.42 goals a game over 55 matches for SC St. Tönis, against 1.62 over 55 for SF Baumberg.

  • Defences are close

    SC St. Tönis concede 1.98 a game, SF Baumberg 2.02.

  • SC St. Tönis games more often go over 2.5 goals

    82% of SC St. Tönis matches, against 62% for SF Baumberg. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SC St. Tönis
SF Baumberg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.3
ELO
1482.8
55
ELO · Matches
55
1514.3
Current Team ELO
1482.8
1482.8
Current Opponent ELO
1514.3
31.53
Current ELO Difference
-31.53
0.55
Expected score
0.45
55
History Matches
55
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.98
Overperformance
49.51
-0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.60
4.60
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.90
3.30
Goals against per game
1.60
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.21
3.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
3.07
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.06
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.13
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
55
1.60
PPG
1.27
47.3%
Win rate
34.5%
18.2%
Draw rate
23.6%
34.5%
Loss rate
41.8%
92.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
67.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.9%
3.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
25
1.54
PPG
1.20
42.9%
Win rate
32.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
24.0%
32.1%
Loss rate
44.0%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
82.1%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
67.9%
Over 3.5 rate
68.0%
3.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
28
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.42
Goals for per game
1.62
87.3%
Scoring rate
76.4%
65.5%
BTTS rate
63.6%
2.36
Goals for per game
1.84
85.7%
Scoring rate
84.0%
67.9%
BTTS rate
80.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
55
2.42
Goals Mean
1.62
1.74
Goals Std
1.48
87.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
69.1%
Scored 2+ rate
43.6%
40.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.8%
2.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.98
Goals against per game
2.02
74.5%
Conceding rate
81.8%
2.21
Goals against per game
2.48
75.0%
Conceding rate
92.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
55
1.98
Conceded Mean
2.02
1.96
Conceded Std
1.81
50.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
34.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.1%
2.21
Venue Conceded Mean
2.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
55
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
3.01
Goal Difference Std
2.43
6.13
Stability score
2.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
55
24
Lead Matches
19
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.84
13
Trailing Matches
21
7.7%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
1.18
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
1.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.94
Rest days
77.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
26
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
1
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.26
Portability PPG Range
0.29
79.53
Portability Score
80.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.53
PPG0.33
GF0.80
GA-0.04
PPG1.00
PPG0.34
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.80
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate10.9%
Scored 2+ rate25.5%
Scored 3+ rate18.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.21
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.01
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.58
Stability score3.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate4.4%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.04
Portability Score-0.91
Rest days1.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO31.53
Current Opponent ELO-31.53
Current ELO Difference63.06
Expected score0.09
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.51

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SC St. Tönis

D
Fortuna Düsseldorf II1–1SC St. Tönis23 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf II 60% · missed
W
SC St. Tönis1–0Holzheimer SG18 Oct · home
Pick: SC St. Tönis 69% · hit
D
SC St. Tönis3–3Monheim30 Aug · home
Pick: SC St. Tönis 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SF Baumberg

W
SF Baumberg2–1BW Dingden25 Oct · home
Pick: SF Baumberg 53% · hit
D
Büderich0–0SF Baumberg16 Oct · away
Pick: Büderich 41% · missed
W
SF Baumberg2–1KFC Uerdingen 0530 Aug · home
Pick: KFC Uerdingen 05 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

SC St. Tönis and SF Baumberg meet in Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: SC St. Tönis win 44.1%, draw 20.0%, SF Baumberg win 35.8%. The pick is SC St. Tönis win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.8%. Both teams to score: 69.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.