ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niederrhein Germany Niederrhein - 12 2026

Germania Ratingen vs KFC Uerdingen 05

Germania Ratingen Home · Elo 1,587
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
KFC Uerdingen 05 Away · Elo 1,576
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Germania Ratingen win
Germania Ratingen winPick
36.6%
Draw
27.5%
KFC Uerdingen 05 win
35.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.2%
No36.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%

How much we know

Germania Ratingen history55 matches
KFC Uerdingen 05 history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Germania Ratingen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,587 against 1,576. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Germania Ratingen score more

    2.09 goals a game over 55 matches for Germania Ratingen, against 1.63 over 46 for KFC Uerdingen 05.

  • Defences are close

    Germania Ratingen concede 1.55 a game, KFC Uerdingen 05 1.46.

  • Germania Ratingen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Germania Ratingen matches, against 61% for KFC Uerdingen 05. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Germania Ratingen
KFC Uerdingen 05
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1587.4
ELO
1576.1
55
ELO · Matches
46
1587.4
Current Team ELO
1576.1
1576.1
Current Opponent ELO
1587.4
11.37
Current ELO Difference
-11.37
0.52
Expected score
0.48
55
History Matches
46
0.07
Residual Mean
0.08
55.41
Overperformance
55.45
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.20
2.00
Goals for per game
2.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.57
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
46
1.67
PPG
1.65
47.3%
Win rate
47.8%
25.5%
Draw rate
21.7%
27.3%
Loss rate
30.4%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.1%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
52.7%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
24
2.00
PPG
1.58
57.7%
Win rate
45.8%
26.9%
Draw rate
20.8%
15.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
53.8%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.09
Goals for per game
1.63
87.3%
Scoring rate
80.4%
69.1%
BTTS rate
60.9%
2.38
Goals for per game
1.63
100.0%
Scoring rate
79.2%
73.1%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.50
Goals for per game
5.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
46
2.09
Goals Mean
1.63
1.49
Goals Std
1.42
87.3%
Scored 1+ rate
80.4%
58.2%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
36.4%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
2.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.46
76.4%
Conceding rate
76.1%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.58
73.1%
Conceding rate
79.2%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
46
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.26
Conceded Std
1.39
47.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.8%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.4%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
46
0.96
Result entropy
0.95
1.93
Goal Difference Std
2.15
3.80
Stability score
4.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
46
22
Lead Matches
17
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.90
14
Trailing Matches
9
35.7%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.85
Rest days
85.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
30
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
4.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.97
Portability PPG Range
1.08
50.84
Portability Score
48.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO11.37
PPG0.02
GF0.46
GA0.09
PPG-2.00
PPG0.42
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.46
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate6.8%
Scored 2+ rate14.7%
Scored 3+ rate16.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches9
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-0.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.76
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score2.65
Rest days-6.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO11.37
Current Opponent ELO-11.37
Current ELO Difference22.74
Expected score0.03
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Germania Ratingen

D
Meerbusch2–2Germania Ratingen25 Oct · away
Pick: Germania Ratingen 56% · missed
L
Germania Ratingen3–5Sonsbeck16 Oct · home
Pick: Germania Ratingen 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

KFC Uerdingen 05

L
KFC Uerdingen 050–1Monheim24 Oct · home
Pick: KFC Uerdingen 05 55% · missed
D
Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.1–1KFC Uerdingen 0518 Oct · away
Pick: KFC Uerdingen 05 54% · missed
L
SF Baumberg2–1KFC Uerdingen 0530 Aug · away
Pick: KFC Uerdingen 05 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Germania Ratingen and KFC Uerdingen 05 meet in Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Germania Ratingen win 36.6%, draw 27.5%, KFC Uerdingen 05 win 35.9%. The pick is Germania Ratingen win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.9%. Both teams to score: 63.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.