ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niederrhein Germany Niederrhein - 12 2026

Schonnebeck vs Sonsbeck

Schonnebeck Home · Elo 1,598
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sonsbeck Away · Elo 1,471
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Schonnebeck win
Schonnebeck winPick
60.1%
Draw
21.9%
Sonsbeck win
18.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes68.7%
No31.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.5%
Under 2.522.5%

How much we know

Schonnebeck history56 matches
Sonsbeck history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Schonnebeck are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Schonnebeck are rated 127 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,471. On rating alone Schonnebeck would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Schonnebeck score far more

    2.50 goals a game over 56 matches for Schonnebeck, against 1.52 over 52 for Sonsbeck.

  • Schonnebeck concede fewer

    Schonnebeck concede 1.50 a game, Sonsbeck 1.75.

  • Schonnebeck games more often go over 2.5 goals

    77% of Schonnebeck matches, against 67% for Sonsbeck. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Schonnebeck
Sonsbeck
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1598.0
ELO
1471.0
56
ELO · Matches
52
1598.0
Current Team ELO
1471.0
1471.0
Current Opponent ELO
1598.0
126.9
Current ELO Difference
-126.9
0.67
Expected score
0.33
56
History Matches
52
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.03
56.33
Overperformance
48.04
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.00
3.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.60
3.10
Goals for per game
1.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
52
1.80
PPG
1.25
51.8%
Win rate
34.6%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.2%
23.2%
Loss rate
44.2%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
76.8%
Over 2.5 rate
67.3%
58.9%
Over 3.5 rate
44.2%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
26
1.82
PPG
1.12
53.6%
Win rate
30.8%
21.4%
Draw rate
19.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
96.4%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
73.1%
67.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
28
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.50
Goals for per game
1.52
87.5%
Scoring rate
78.8%
75.0%
BTTS rate
67.3%
2.82
Goals for per game
1.46
92.9%
Scoring rate
80.8%
82.1%
BTTS rate
69.2%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
52
2.50
Goals Mean
1.52
1.98
Goals Std
1.13
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
64.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
41.1%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
2.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.75
83.9%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.64
Goals against per game
1.96
89.3%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
52
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.10
Conceded Std
1.34
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.1%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
52
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
2.38
Goal Difference Std
1.89
6.58
Stability score
3.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
51
28
Lead Matches
12
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.78
12
Trailing Matches
18
41.7%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
1.18
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
1.32
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.85
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
25
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.08
83.47
Portability Score
92.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO126.9
PPG0.55
GF0.98
GA-0.25
PPG1.00
PPG0.71
PPG1.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.98
Goals Std0.85
Scored 1+ rate8.7%
Scored 2+ rate14.3%
Scored 3+ rate25.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.54
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.49
Stability score2.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate13.9%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score-9.36
Rest days1.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.81
Current Team ELO126.9
Current Opponent ELO-126.9
Current ELO Difference253.9
Expected score0.35
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Schonnebeck

W
SW Essen1–4Schonnebeck24 Oct · away
Pick: Schonnebeck 66% · hit
W
Schonnebeck4–1Scherpenberg18 Oct · home
Pick: Schonnebeck 54% · hit
W
Schonnebeck2–1Fortuna Düsseldorf II4 Oct · home
Pick: Schonnebeck 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sonsbeck

D
Sonsbeck0–0Wuppertaler SV25 Oct · home
Pick: Sonsbeck 55% · missed
W
Germania Ratingen3–5Sonsbeck16 Oct · away
Pick: Germania Ratingen 56% · missed
D
SW Essen1–1Sonsbeck30 Aug · away
Pick: Sonsbeck 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Schonnebeck and Sonsbeck meet in Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Schonnebeck win 60.1%, draw 21.9%, Sonsbeck win 18.0%. The pick is Schonnebeck win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.5%. Both teams to score: 68.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.