ScoreProb
Super League Uzbekistan Round 27 2026

Bunyodkor vs Xorazm

Bunyodkor Home · Elo 1,483
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Xorazm Away · Elo 1,444
Milliy Stadium, Tashkent Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:14 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bunyodkor win
Bunyodkor winPick
48.2%
Draw
26.2%
Xorazm win
25.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Bunyodkor history56 matches
Xorazm history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 5 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:14 UTC
  2. Re-published 9 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bunyodkor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bunyodkor are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,483 against 1,444. On rating alone Bunyodkor would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Bunyodkor score more

    1.41 goals a game over 56 matches for Bunyodkor, against 1.04 over 52 for Xorazm.

  • Defences are close

    Bunyodkor concede 1.46 a game, Xorazm 1.35.

  • Bunyodkor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Bunyodkor matches, against 42% for Xorazm. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bunyodkor
Xorazm
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.0
ELO
1444.1
56
ELO · Matches
52
1483.0
Current Team ELO
1444.1
1444.1
Current Opponent ELO
1483.0
38.94
Current ELO Difference
-38.94
0.56
Expected score
0.44
56
History Matches
52
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.06
48.79
Overperformance
45.75
-0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.70
2.00
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
52
1.43
PPG
1.00
39.3%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
35.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
76.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.2%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
33.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
28
1.29
PPG
0.89
35.7%
Win rate
21.4%
21.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
53.6%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
28
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.04
83.9%
Scoring rate
67.3%
62.5%
BTTS rate
48.1%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.04
89.3%
Scoring rate
67.9%
71.4%
BTTS rate
53.6%
1.19
Goals for per game
0.89
68.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
44.4%
56
History Matches
52
1.41
Goals Mean
1.04
0.86
Goals Std
0.92
83.9%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
48.2%
Scored 2+ rate
28.8%
8.9%
Scored 3+ rate
7.7%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.35
71.4%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.39
78.6%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.39
75.0%
Conceding rate
72.2%
56
History Matches
52
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.38
Conceded Std
1.14
39.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.5%
21.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.4%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
52
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.55
1.57
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
52
17
Lead Matches
13
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.85
19
Trailing Matches
14
26.3%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.98
Rest days
71.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.86
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
16
Matches
18
1.19
PPG
1.11
37.5%
Win rate
27.8%
6.3%
Draw rate
27.8%
56.3%
Loss rate
44.4%
56.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
16
Current Competition Matches
18
1.19
Current Competition PPG
1.11
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.40
Portability PPG Range
0.14
75.31
Portability Score
87.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO38.94
PPG0.43
GF0.37
GA0.12
PPG0.08
PPG0.39
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate16.6%
Scored 2+ rate19.4%
Scored 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.39
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Conceded 2+ rate0.8%
Conceded 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches4
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-3.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate3.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.26
Portability Score-12.23
Rest days11.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.47
Current Team ELO38.94
Current Opponent ELO-38.94
Current ELO Difference77.88
Expected score0.11
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bunyodkor

D
Bunyodkor1–1Sogdiana16 Oct · home
Pick: Bunyodkor 39% · missed
L
Lokomotiv4–1Bunyodkor26 Aug · away
Pick: Lokomotiv 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Xorazm

L
Xorazm0–1Pakhtakor30 Oct · home
Pick: Pakhtakor 51% · hit
L
Xorazm1–2Navbahor26 Oct · home
Pick: Navbahor 46% · hit
D
Surkhon0–0Xorazm16 Oct · away
Pick: Surkhon 41% · missed
D
Neftchi2–2Xorazm7 Oct · away
Pick: Neftchi 71% · missed
L
Andijan1–0Xorazm25 Aug · away
Pick: Andijan 53% · hit

About this match

Bunyodkor and Xorazm meet in Super League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Milliy Stadium, Tashkent. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:14 UTC: Bunyodkor win 48.2%, draw 26.2%, Xorazm win 25.6%. The pick is Bunyodkor win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.