ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone B Italy Girone B - 13 2026

Campobasso FC vs Livorno

Campobasso FC Home · Elo 1,556
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Livorno Away · Elo 1,524
Stadio Nuovo Romagnoli, Campobasso Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Campobasso FC win
Campobasso FC winPick
48.5%
Draw
27.4%
Livorno win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.0%
No53.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.7%
Under 2.549.3%

How much we know

Campobasso FC history59 matches
Livorno history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Campobasso FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Campobasso FC are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,524. On rating alone Campobasso FC would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Livorno score more

    1.22 goals a game over 59 matches for Campobasso FC, against 1.38 over 58 for Livorno.

  • Campobasso FC concede fewer

    Campobasso FC concede 1.17 a game, Livorno 1.41.

  • Livorno games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Campobasso FC matches, against 62% for Livorno. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Campobasso FC
Livorno
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.6
ELO
1524.0
59
ELO · Matches
58
1555.6
Current Team ELO
1524.0
1524.0
Current Opponent ELO
1555.6
31.55
Current ELO Difference
-31.55
0.55
Expected score
0.45
59
History Matches
58
0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
53.90
Overperformance
51.99
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.90
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
58
1.49
PPG
1.50
42.4%
Win rate
43.1%
22.0%
Draw rate
20.7%
35.6%
Loss rate
36.2%
69.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
27
1.77
PPG
1.00
51.6%
Win rate
25.9%
22.6%
Draw rate
22.2%
25.8%
Loss rate
51.9%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
38.7%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
12.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
31
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.38
67.8%
Scoring rate
77.6%
42.4%
BTTS rate
62.1%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.00
77.4%
Scoring rate
66.7%
45.2%
BTTS rate
48.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
58
1.22
Goals Mean
1.38
1.06
Goals Std
1.03
67.8%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
42.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.41
67.8%
Conceding rate
77.6%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.67
64.5%
Conceding rate
70.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
58
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.09
Conceded Std
1.23
33.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.4%
11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
32.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
32.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
58
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.73
3.08
Stability score
3.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
57
13
Lead Matches
17
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.88
24
Trailing Matches
15
33.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
20.8%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.76
1.34
Portability PPG Range
1.81
47.53
Portability Score
39.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.55
PPG-0.01
GF-0.16
GA-0.24
PPG0.00
PPG0.77
PPG-1.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-0.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate2.3%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate13.3%
Trailing Win Rate7.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.46
Portability Score7.90
Rest days1.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.09
Current Team ELO31.55
Current Opponent ELO-31.55
Current ELO Difference63.10
Expected score0.09
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Campobasso FC

W
Campobasso FC2–0Forli1 Nov · home
Pick: Campobasso FC 51% · hit
W
Campobasso FC2–0Latina28 Oct · home
Pick: Campobasso FC 53% · hit
W
Atalanta II1–2Campobasso FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Atalanta II 39% · missed
L
Campobasso FC1–5Perugia18 Oct · home
Pick: Campobasso FC 51% · missed
D
Campobasso FC1–1Torres4 Oct · home
Pick: Campobasso FC 53% · missed

Livorno

W
Livorno1–0Ostia Mare1 Nov · home
Pick: Livorno 59% · hit
L
Spezia2–1Livorno28 Oct · away
Pick: Spezia 50% · hit
L
Sambenedettese2–1Livorno24 Oct · away
Pick: Sambenedettese 37% · hit
D
Livorno4–4Grosseto16 Oct · home
Pick: Livorno 44% · missed
D
Pineto0–0Livorno29 Aug · away
Pick: Pineto 40% · missed

About this match

Campobasso FC and Livorno meet in Serie C - Girone B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Nuovo Romagnoli, Campobasso. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Campobasso FC win 48.5%, draw 27.4%, Livorno win 24.1%. The pick is Campobasso FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.7%. Both teams to score: 47.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.