ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone B Italy Girone B - 13 2026

Pianese vs Perugia

Pianese Home · Elo 1,526
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Perugia Away · Elo 1,481
Stadio Comunale, Piancastagnaio Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pianese win
Pianese winPick
40.1%
Draw
30.3%
Perugia win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.0%
No53.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.6%
Under 2.560.4%

How much we know

Pianese history59 matches
Perugia history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pianese are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pianese are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,526 against 1,481. On rating alone Pianese would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.07 goals a game over 59 matches for Pianese, against 1.02 over 56 for Perugia.

  • Defences are close

    Pianese concede 1.08 a game, Perugia 1.09.

  • Perugia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    31% of Pianese matches, against 41% for Perugia. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pianese
Perugia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1525.9
ELO
1481.2
59
ELO · Matches
56
1525.9
Current Team ELO
1481.2
1481.2
Current Opponent ELO
1525.9
44.61
Current ELO Difference
-44.61
0.56
Expected score
0.44
59
History Matches
56
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.53
Overperformance
49.35
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
56
1.36
PPG
1.13
33.9%
Win rate
25.0%
33.9%
Draw rate
37.5%
32.2%
Loss rate
37.5%
64.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
30.5%
Over 2.5 rate
41.1%
18.6%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
26
1.45
PPG
0.88
37.9%
Win rate
15.4%
31.0%
Draw rate
42.3%
31.0%
Loss rate
42.3%
62.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.97
29
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
1.02
64.4%
Scoring rate
66.1%
44.1%
BTTS rate
51.8%
1.24
Goals for per game
0.92
69.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
48.3%
BTTS rate
61.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
59
History Matches
56
1.07
Goals Mean
1.02
1.04
Goals Std
0.94
64.4%
Scored 1+ rate
66.1%
30.5%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
5.4%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
1.09
66.1%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.35
69.0%
Conceding rate
84.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
59
History Matches
56
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.03
Conceded Std
0.81
30.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
56
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.36
Goal Difference Std
1.24
0.03
Stability score
1.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
56
13
Lead Matches
13
46.2%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.59
Lead Points Retention
0.64
13
Trailing Matches
17
23.1%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.12
Portability PPG Range
0.31
91.35
Portability Score
76.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO44.61
PPG0.23
GF0.05
GA0.00
PPG-3.00
PPG0.56
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate15.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.3%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate1.9%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Conceded 2+ rate0.2%
Conceded 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-1.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.60
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score14.80
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO44.61
Current Opponent ELO-44.61
Current ELO Difference89.22
Expected score0.13
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pianese

D
Latina1–1Pianese1 Nov · away
Pick: Latina 44% · missed
D
Forli0–0Pianese25 Oct · away
Pick: Forli 54% · missed
D
Pianese0–0Pineto17 Oct · home
Pick: Pineto 38% · missed
W
Pianese2–1Ravenna4 Oct · home
Pick: Ravenna 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Perugia

D
Guidonia Montecelio 19371–1Perugia31 Oct · away
Pick: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 55% · missed
L
Perugia1–2Pescara23 Oct · home
Pick: Pescara 43% · hit
W
Campobasso FC1–5Perugia18 Oct · away
Pick: Campobasso FC 51% · missed
D
Vis Pesaro2–2Perugia30 Aug · away
Pick: Vis Pesaro 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pianese and Perugia meet in Serie C - Girone B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Comunale, Piancastagnaio. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Pianese win 40.1%, draw 30.3%, Perugia win 29.6%. The pick is Pianese win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.6%. Both teams to score: 47.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.