ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone B Italy Girone B - 13 2026

Grosseto vs Pescara

Grosseto Home · Elo 1,546
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pescara Away · Elo 1,466
Stadio Carlo Zecchini, Grosseto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Grosseto win
Grosseto winPick
38.9%
Draw
25.7%
Pescara win
35.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%

How much we know

Grosseto history60 matches
Pescara history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Grosseto are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Grosseto are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,466. On rating alone Grosseto would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.45 goals a game over 60 matches for Grosseto, against 1.52 over 66 for Pescara.

  • Grosseto concede fewer

    Grosseto concede 1.00 a game, Pescara 1.42.

  • Pescara games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Grosseto matches, against 58% for Pescara. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Grosseto
Pescara
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.4
ELO
1466.2
60
ELO · Matches
66
1546.4
Current Team ELO
1466.2
1466.2
Current Opponent ELO
1546.4
80.28
Current ELO Difference
-80.28
0.61
Expected score
0.39
60
History Matches
66
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
54.13
Overperformance
48.66
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
66
1.65
PPG
1.33
46.7%
Win rate
34.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
28.8%
28.3%
Loss rate
36.4%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
30
1.58
PPG
1.27
41.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
26.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
36
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.52
80.0%
Scoring rate
78.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.50
80.6%
Scoring rate
76.7%
58.3%
BTTS rate
63.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
60
History Matches
66
1.45
Goals Mean
1.52
1.20
Goals Std
1.20
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
38.3%
Scored 2+ rate
43.9%
18.3%
Scored 3+ rate
19.7%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.42
63.3%
Conceding rate
78.8%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.73
72.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
60
History Matches
66
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.42
0.98
Conceded Std
1.09
26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
66
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.75
3.55
Stability score
0.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
66
21
Lead Matches
22
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
54.5%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.64
11
Trailing Matches
14
9.1%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.69
Rest days
77.69
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
42
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
17
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.19
Portability PPG Range
1.19
50.56
Portability Score
49.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO80.28
PPG0.32
GF-0.07
GA-0.42
PPG-2.00
PPG0.32
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate1.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.42
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score3.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate12.1%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score0.67
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO80.28
Current Opponent ELO-80.28
Current ELO Difference160.6
Expected score0.23
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Grosseto

D
Vado2–2Grosseto31 Oct · away
Pick: Vado 51% · missed
W
Grosseto2–0Reggiana25 Oct · home
Pick: Grosseto 49% · hit
D
Livorno4–4Grosseto16 Oct · away
Pick: Livorno 44% · missed
W
Ostia Mare1–2Grosseto29 Aug · away
Pick: Ostia Mare 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pescara

D
Pescara0–0Torres31 Oct · home
Pick: Pescara 55% · missed
W
Perugia1–2Pescara23 Oct · away
Pick: Pescara 43% · hit
W
Pescara2–0Ostia Mare18 Oct · home
Pick: Pescara 56% · hit
D
Pescara1–1Guidonia Montecelio 193712 Oct · home
Pick: Pescara 40% · missed
L
Forli6–3Pescara29 Aug · away
Pick: Forli 38% · hit

About this match

Grosseto and Pescara meet in Serie C - Girone B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Carlo Zecchini, Grosseto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Grosseto win 38.9%, draw 25.7%, Pescara win 35.4%. The pick is Grosseto win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.