ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone B Italy Girone B - 13 2026

Sambenedettese vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Sambenedettese Home · Elo 1,486
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Away · Elo 1,510
Stadio Comunale Riviera delle Palme, San Benedetto del Tronto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win
Sambenedettese win
31.1%
Draw
30.6%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 winPick
38.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.8%
No54.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.9%
Under 2.560.1%

How much we know

Sambenedettese history58 matches
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Guidonia Montecelio 1937 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,486 against 1,510. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Guidonia Montecelio 1937 score more

    0.98 goals a game over 58 matches for Sambenedettese, against 1.33 over 58 for Guidonia Montecelio 1937.

  • Guidonia Montecelio 1937 concede fewer

    Sambenedettese concede 1.05 a game, Guidonia Montecelio 1937 0.93.

  • Guidonia Montecelio 1937 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Sambenedettese matches, against 41% for Guidonia Montecelio 1937. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sambenedettese
Guidonia Montecelio 1937
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.2
ELO
1510.2
58
ELO · Matches
58
1486.2
Current Team ELO
1510.2
1510.2
Current Opponent ELO
1486.2
-24.04
Current ELO Difference
24.04
0.47
Expected score
0.53
58
History Matches
58
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
49.44
Overperformance
50.29
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
58
1.22
PPG
1.50
29.3%
Win rate
39.7%
34.5%
Draw rate
31.0%
36.2%
Loss rate
29.3%
58.6%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
32.8%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
30
1.00
PPG
1.47
23.3%
Win rate
40.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
46.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
30
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.98
Goals for per game
1.33
60.3%
Scoring rate
67.2%
43.1%
BTTS rate
41.4%
0.73
Goals for per game
1.27
46.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
43.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
58
History Matches
58
0.98
Goals Mean
1.33
0.99
Goals Std
1.42
60.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.2%
29.3%
Scored 2+ rate
32.8%
6.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.2%
0.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
0.93
67.2%
Conceding rate
58.6%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
63.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
58
History Matches
58
1.05
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.04
Conceded Std
0.93
25.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.3%
6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.2%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
39.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
53.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
39.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
53.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
58
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.63
0.36
Stability score
0.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
58
15
Lead Matches
15
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
9
15.4%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
78.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.97
Portability PPG Range
1.39
55.46
Portability Score
46.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-24.04
PPG-0.28
GF-0.34
GA0.12
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.47
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score8.82
Rest days-1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO-24.04
Current Opponent ELO24.04
Current ELO Difference-48.08
Expected score-0.07
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sambenedettese

L
Reggiana2–0Sambenedettese30 Oct · away
Pick: Reggiana 38% · hit
W
Sambenedettese2–1Livorno24 Oct · home
Pick: Sambenedettese 37% · hit
D
Vado2–2Sambenedettese17 Oct · away
Pick: Vado 62% · missed
L
Torres1–0Sambenedettese29 Aug · away
Pick: Torres 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

D
Guidonia Montecelio 19371–1Perugia31 Oct · home
Pick: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 55% · missed
L
Torres2–0Guidonia Montecelio 193725 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
W
Guidonia Montecelio 19373–2Forli17 Oct · home
Pick: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 49% · hit
D
Pescara1–1Guidonia Montecelio 193712 Oct · away
Pick: Pescara 40% · missed
W
Guidonia Montecelio 19371–0Pineto4 Oct · home
Pick: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 52% · hit

About this match

Sambenedettese and Guidonia Montecelio 1937 meet in Serie C - Girone B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Comunale Riviera delle Palme, San Benedetto del Tronto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sambenedettese win 31.1%, draw 30.6%, Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win 38.3%. The pick is Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.9%. Both teams to score: 45.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.