Cardiff MET vs Dolgellau Athletic
Match result probability Model pick: Cardiff MET win
Cardiff MET winPick
68.6%
Draw
14.5%
Dolgellau Athletic win
16.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.2%
No52.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%
How much we know
Cardiff MET history55 matches
Dolgellau Athletic history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Cardiff MET
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.6%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Cardiff MET are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,501 against 1,505. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Dolgellau Athletic score far more
1.38 goals a game over 55 matches for Cardiff MET, against 3.00 over 3 for Dolgellau Athletic.
-
Defences are close
Cardiff MET concede 1.53 a game, Dolgellau Athletic 1.67.
-
Cardiff MET games more often go over 2.5 goals
53% of Cardiff MET matches, against 33% for Dolgellau Athletic. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dolgellau Athletic@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1501.1
ELO
1505.4
55
ELO · Matches
3
1501.1
Current Team ELO
1505.4
1505.4
Current Opponent ELO
1501.1
-4.28
Current ELO Difference
4.28
0.49
Expected score
0.51
55
History Matches
3
0.01
Residual Mean
0.12
50.74
Overperformance
51.58
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
3
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
3.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.67
40.0%
Win rate
66.7%
10
Matches
3
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.50
Goals for per game
3.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.67
40.0%
Win rate
66.7%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
1.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
3.56
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.67
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.87
Overall performance9 signals 90
55
Matches
3
1.25
PPG
2.00
29.1%
Win rate
66.7%
38.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
32.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
52.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.87
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
1
1.40
PPG
3.00
36.7%
Win rate
100.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
30
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.38
Goals for per game
3.00
69.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
60.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
70.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
3
1.38
Goals Mean
3.00
1.37
Goals Std
3.56
69.1%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
1.67
80.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.80
Goals against per game
0.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
3
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.35
Conceded Std
1.25
38.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.80
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
30.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
30.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
55
History Matches
3
0.99
Result entropy
0.58
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.87
0.57
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
55
Eligible Matches
3
16
Lead Matches
1
56.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
1.00
19
Trailing Matches
1
52.6%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
21.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
1.33
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.67
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.84
Rest days
357.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.33
Portability PPG Std
—
0.82
Portability PPG Range
—
60.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
55
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-4.28
PPG-0.75
GF-1.62
GA-0.14
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches52
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches29
Clean-sheet rate-0.83
Failed-to-score rate30.0%
History Matches52
Goals Mean-1.62
Goals Std-2.19
Scored 1+ rate2.4%
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.81
History Matches52
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches52
Result entropy0.41
Goal Difference Std-0.83
Stability score-41.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches52
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate-0.44
Lead Points Retention-0.31
Trailing Matches18
Non-loss rate52.6%
Trailing Win Rate21.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches52
First Half Goals For Mean-0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.58
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count6
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-272.2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches25
Long Rest History Matches24
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO-4.28
Current Opponent ELO4.28
Current ELO Difference-8.56
Expected score-0.01
History Matches52
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-0.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Cardiff MET
W
Haverfordwest County AFC0–3Cardiff MET6 Nov · away
Pick: Haverfordwest County AFC 40% · missed L
Cardiff MET0–5Penybont31 Oct · home
Pick: Penybont 44% · hit D
Colwyn Bay2–2Cardiff MET23 Oct · away
Pick: Colwyn Bay 50% · missed W
Cardiff MET4–0Ynyshir Albions16 Oct · home
Pick: Cardiff MET 59% · hit W
Ammanford AFC0–5Cardiff MET31 Aug · away
Pick: Cardiff MET 43% · hit Dolgellau Athletic
W
Penycae1–4Dolgellau Athletic17 Oct · away
Pick: Penycae 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Cardiff MET and Dolgellau Athletic meet in Welsh Cup on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Cyncoed Campus, Cardiff. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Cardiff MET win 68.6%, draw 14.5%, Dolgellau Athletic win 16.9%. The pick is Cardiff MET win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.