Caerau (Ely) vs Brickfield Rangers
Match result probability Model pick: Caerau (Ely) win
Caerau (Ely) winPick
56.0%
Draw
23.3%
Brickfield Rangers win
20.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.9%
No44.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.6%
Under 2.536.4%
How much we know
Caerau (Ely) history56 matches
Brickfield Rangers history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Caerau (Ely)
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.0%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Caerau (Ely) are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,526 against 1,514. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Caerau (Ely) score more
1.96 goals a game over 56 matches for Caerau (Ely), against 1.51 over 37 for Brickfield Rangers.
-
Defences are close
Caerau (Ely) concede 1.43 a game, Brickfield Rangers 1.51.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
59% of Caerau (Ely) matches, against 59% for Brickfield Rangers. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brickfield Rangers@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1525.7
ELO
1513.6
56
ELO · Matches
37
1525.7
Current Team ELO
1513.6
1513.6
Current Opponent ELO
1525.7
12.08
Current ELO Difference
-12.08
0.52
Expected score
0.48
56
History Matches
37
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
52.36
Overperformance
51.08
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
3.00
2.60
Goals for per game
3.20
3.20
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.10
2.10
Goals for per game
2.60
2.10
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.91
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.53
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
37
1.52
PPG
1.41
44.6%
Win rate
43.2%
17.9%
Draw rate
10.8%
37.5%
Loss rate
45.9%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
58.9%
Over 2.5 rate
59.5%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.77
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
19
1.58
PPG
1.05
45.2%
Win rate
31.6%
22.6%
Draw rate
10.5%
32.3%
Loss rate
57.9%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
35.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.95
31
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.96
Goals for per game
1.51
76.8%
Scoring rate
62.2%
53.6%
BTTS rate
40.5%
1.84
Goals for per game
1.16
77.4%
Scoring rate
52.6%
58.1%
BTTS rate
31.6%
56
History Matches
37
1.96
Goals Mean
1.51
1.60
Goals Std
1.67
76.8%
Scored 1+ rate
62.2%
55.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
33.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.6%
1.84
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.43
Goals against per game
1.51
69.6%
Conceding rate
73.0%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.89
71.0%
Conceding rate
73.7%
56
History Matches
37
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.37
Conceded Std
1.55
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.1%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.9%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
37
0.94
Result entropy
0.87
2.15
Goal Difference Std
2.77
5.75
Stability score
12.59
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
55
Eligible Matches
37
22
Lead Matches
12
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.92
13
Trailing Matches
11
15.4%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
1.16
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.80
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
27
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.88
1.96
Portability PPG Range
1.77
42.30
Portability Score
36.14
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO12.08
PPG0.11
GF0.45
GA-0.08
PPG0.53
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches19
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate14.6%
Scored 2+ rate14.8%
Scored 3+ rate12.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.21
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Conceded 2+ rate0.6%
Conceded 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.81
History Matches19
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.62
Stability score-6.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score6.15
Rest days0.78
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.47
Current Team ELO12.08
Current Opponent ELO-12.08
Current ELO Difference24.17
Expected score0.03
History Matches19
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.36
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Caerau (Ely)
L
Caerau (Ely)1–3Pontypridd Town6 Nov · home
Pick: Caerau (Ely) 41% · missed W
Caerphilly Athletic0–1Caerau (Ely)30 Oct · away
Pick: Caerau (Ely) 47% · hit L
Caerau (Ely)0–2Llantwit Major23 Oct · home
Pick: Caerau (Ely) 65% · missed W
Caerau (Ely)6–0llanelli AFC16 Oct · home
Pick: Caerau (Ely) 63% · hit W
Caerau (Ely)3–2Treowen Stars31 Aug · home
Pick: Caerau (Ely) 48% · hit Brickfield Rangers
W
Buckley Town1–3Brickfield Rangers7 Nov · away
Pick: Brickfield Rangers 68% · hit D
Brickfield Rangers1–1Bala Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Brickfield Rangers 48% · missed W
Porthmadog0–1Brickfield Rangers24 Oct · away
Pick: Brickfield Rangers 50% · hit W
Brickfield Rangers2–0Llangefni Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Brickfield Rangers 70% · hit W
Brickfield Rangers2–0Ruthin Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Brickfield Rangers 62% · hit About this match
Caerau (Ely) and Brickfield Rangers meet in Welsh Cup on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Caerau (Ely) win 56.0%, draw 23.3%, Brickfield Rangers win 20.7%. The pick is Caerau (Ely) win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.6%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.