Colwyn Bay vs Aberystwyth Town
Match result probability Model pick: Colwyn Bay win
Colwyn Bay winPick
65.0%
Draw
18.4%
Aberystwyth Town win
16.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.2%
No45.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%
How much we know
Colwyn Bay history61 matches
Aberystwyth Town history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Colwyn Bay
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.0%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Colwyn Bay are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Colwyn Bay are rated 107 Elo points higher
Elo 1,580 against 1,473. On rating alone Colwyn Bay would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Colwyn Bay score more
1.56 goals a game over 61 matches for Colwyn Bay, against 1.22 over 46 for Aberystwyth Town.
-
Colwyn Bay concede fewer
Colwyn Bay concede 1.13 a game, Aberystwyth Town 1.61.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
51% of Colwyn Bay matches, against 57% for Aberystwyth Town. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aberystwyth Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1580.2
ELO
1473.4
61
ELO · Matches
46
1580.2
Current Team ELO
1473.4
1473.4
Current Opponent ELO
1580.2
106.8
Current ELO Difference
-106.8
0.65
Expected score
0.35
61
History Matches
46
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.03
54.99
Overperformance
48.10
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.10
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.30
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.90
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.45
Overall performance9 signals 90
61
Matches
46
1.69
PPG
1.24
49.2%
Win rate
37.0%
21.3%
Draw rate
13.0%
29.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
70.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
31.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
23
1.77
PPG
1.35
51.6%
Win rate
43.5%
22.6%
Draw rate
4.3%
25.8%
Loss rate
52.2%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
31
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.56
Goals for per game
1.22
73.8%
Scoring rate
60.9%
44.3%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.22
80.6%
Scoring rate
65.2%
54.8%
BTTS rate
47.8%
61
History Matches
46
1.56
Goals Mean
1.22
1.37
Goals Std
1.37
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
60.9%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
26.2%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
1.61
63.9%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.87
67.7%
Conceding rate
78.3%
61
History Matches
46
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.12
Conceded Std
1.41
32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
61
History Matches
46
0.95
Result entropy
0.89
1.81
Goal Difference Std
2.12
5.46
Stability score
10.78
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
61
Eligible Matches
46
27
Lead Matches
7
96.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.98
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
15
14.3%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.80
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.92
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.80
Portability PPG Range
1.22
46.24
Portability Score
49.98
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
61
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO106.8
PPG0.45
GF0.34
GA-0.48
PPG0.43
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate12.9%
Scored 2+ rate12.2%
Scored 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.70
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.48
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches15
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.32
Stability score-5.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.55
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches20
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate1.0%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.58
Portability Score-3.74
Rest days0.78
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.62
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO106.8
Current Opponent ELO-106.8
Current ELO Difference213.6
Expected score0.30
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Colwyn Bay
W
Trefelin1–2Colwyn Bay6 Nov · away
Pick: Colwyn Bay 51% · hit W
Colwyn Bay2–0Cambrian & Clydach30 Oct · home
Pick: Cambrian & Clydach 36% · missed D
Colwyn Bay2–2Cardiff MET23 Oct · home
Pick: Colwyn Bay 50% · missed D
Buckley Town2–2Colwyn Bay17 Oct · away
Pick: Colwyn Bay 61% · missed W
Colwyn Bay2–0Llandudno31 Aug · home
Pick: Llandudno 50% · missed Aberystwyth Town
W
Carmarthen Town0–4Aberystwyth Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Aberystwyth Town 40% · hit W
Aberystwyth Town2–1Trethomas Bluebirds31 Oct · home
Pick: Aberystwyth Town 57% · hit W
Aberystwyth Town5–1Prestatyn Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Aberystwyth Town 69% · hit W
Aberystwyth Town4–0llanelli AFC31 Aug · home
Pick: Aberystwyth Town 66% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Colwyn Bay and Aberystwyth Town meet in Welsh Cup on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Llanelian Road, Old Colwyn. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Colwyn Bay win 65.0%, draw 18.4%, Aberystwyth Town win 16.5%. The pick is Colwyn Bay win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.