Haverfordwest County AFC vs Ammanford AFC
Match result probability Model pick: Haverfordwest County AFC win
Haverfordwest County AFC winPick
48.6%
Draw
24.1%
Ammanford AFC win
27.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.2%
No45.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%
How much we know
Haverfordwest County AFC history58 matches
Ammanford AFC history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Haverfordwest County AFC
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Haverfordwest County AFC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Ammanford AFC are rated 55 Elo points higher
Elo 1,554 against 1,499. On rating alone Ammanford AFC would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Ammanford AFC score more
1.28 goals a game over 58 matches for Haverfordwest County AFC, against 1.43 over 44 for Ammanford AFC.
-
Ammanford AFC concede fewer
Haverfordwest County AFC concede 1.53 a game, Ammanford AFC 1.07.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
53% of Haverfordwest County AFC matches, against 50% for Ammanford AFC. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ammanford AFC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1498.7
ELO
1553.5
58
ELO · Matches
44
1498.7
Current Team ELO
1553.5
1553.5
Current Opponent ELO
1498.7
-54.78
Current ELO Difference
54.78
0.42
Expected score
0.58
58
History Matches
44
0.00
Residual Mean
0.06
50.25
Overperformance
54.16
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.40
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals 90
58
Matches
44
1.24
PPG
1.61
34.5%
Win rate
43.2%
20.7%
Draw rate
31.8%
44.8%
Loss rate
25.0%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
53.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
22
1.40
PPG
1.55
43.3%
Win rate
40.9%
10.0%
Draw rate
31.8%
46.7%
Loss rate
27.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
30
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.28
Goals for per game
1.43
69.0%
Scoring rate
77.3%
41.4%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.32
80.0%
Scoring rate
77.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
54.5%
58
History Matches
44
1.28
Goals Mean
1.43
1.28
Goals Std
1.32
69.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.3%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.9%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
1.07
67.2%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.05
70.0%
Conceding rate
63.6%
58
History Matches
44
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.43
Conceded Std
1.03
44.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.8%
29.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
58
History Matches
44
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
2.19
Goal Difference Std
1.77
4.17
Stability score
2.28
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
58
Eligible Matches
44
13
Lead Matches
14
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.88
18
Trailing Matches
8
22.2%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.80
Rest days
84.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
30
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.74
Portability PPG Std
0.72
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.75
40.36
Portability Score
41.09
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
58
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-54.78
PPG-0.37
GF-0.16
GA0.47
PPG-0.15
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate20.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score1.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.75
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-0.73
Rest days0.70
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO-54.78
Current Opponent ELO54.78
Current ELO Difference-109.6
Expected score-0.16
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Haverfordwest County AFC
L
Haverfordwest County AFC0–3Cardiff MET6 Nov · home
Pick: Haverfordwest County AFC 40% · missed W
Ammanford AFC0–1Haverfordwest County AFC30 Oct · away
Pick: Ammanford AFC 48% · missed W
Barry Town1–3Haverfordwest County AFC24 Oct · away
Pick: Barry Town 66% · missed W
Haverfordwest County AFC4–0Cardiff Corinthians17 Oct · home
Pick: Haverfordwest County AFC 62% · hit W
Haverfordwest County AFC2–1Trefelin31 Aug · home
Pick: Haverfordwest County AFC 60% · hit Ammanford AFC
W
Ammanford AFC3–1Briton Ferry6 Nov · home
Pick: Briton Ferry 42% · missed L
Ammanford AFC0–1Haverfordwest County AFC30 Oct · home
Pick: Ammanford AFC 48% · missed L
The New Saints9–0Ammanford AFC23 Oct · away
Pick: The New Saints 76% · hit W
FC Cwmaman2–4Ammanford AFC17 Oct · away
Pick: Ammanford AFC 35% · hit L
Ammanford AFC0–5Cardiff MET31 Aug · home
Pick: Cardiff MET 43% · hit About this match
Haverfordwest County AFC and Ammanford AFC meet in Welsh Cup on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Bridge Meadow Stadium, Haverfordwest. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Haverfordwest County AFC win 48.6%, draw 24.1%, Ammanford AFC win 27.3%. The pick is Haverfordwest County AFC win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.