ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 17 2026

Carshalton Athletic vs Cheshunt

Carshalton Athletic Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cheshunt Away · Elo 1,476
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Carshalton Athletic win
Carshalton Athletic winPick
57.0%
Draw
21.2%
Cheshunt win
21.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.1%
Under 2.540.9%

How much we know

Carshalton Athletic history68 matches
Cheshunt history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Carshalton Athletic are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,501 against 1,476. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Carshalton Athletic score more

    1.62 goals a game over 68 matches for Carshalton Athletic, against 1.38 over 68 for Cheshunt.

  • Defences are close

    Carshalton Athletic concede 1.57 a game, Cheshunt 1.56.

  • Carshalton Athletic games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Carshalton Athletic matches, against 59% for Cheshunt. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Carshalton Athletic
Cheshunt
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.7
ELO
1476.3
68
ELO · Matches
68
1500.7
Current Team ELO
1476.3
1476.3
Current Opponent ELO
1500.7
24.45
Current ELO Difference
-24.45
0.54
Expected score
0.46
68
History Matches
68
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.05
Overperformance
48.53
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
68
1.35
PPG
1.21
36.8%
Win rate
30.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
27.9%
38.2%
Loss rate
41.2%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.9%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
35
1.53
PPG
1.09
41.2%
Win rate
28.6%
29.4%
Draw rate
22.9%
29.4%
Loss rate
48.6%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
65.7%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
34
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.38
82.4%
Scoring rate
76.5%
67.6%
BTTS rate
63.2%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.37
79.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
64.7%
BTTS rate
68.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
68
History Matches
68
1.62
Goals Mean
1.38
1.26
Goals Std
1.11
82.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
48.5%
Scored 2+ rate
39.7%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.37
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.56
80.9%
Conceding rate
80.9%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.83
79.4%
Conceding rate
85.7%
0.50
Goals against per game
0.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
68
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.12
Conceded Std
1.21
51.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.6%
19.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.1%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
68
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.58
1.51
Stability score
1.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
68
20
Lead Matches
17
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.82
20
Trailing Matches
16
30.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
51
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
9
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
0.75
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
75.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
1.01
Portability PPG Std
0.35
2.67
Portability PPG Range
1.00
33.10
Portability Score
58.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO24.45
PPG0.15
GF0.24
GA0.01
PPG2.25
PPG0.44
PPG1.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate5.9%
Scored 2+ rate8.8%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.65
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score0.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate5.0%
Trailing Win Rate8.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.66
Portability PPG Range1.67
Portability Score-25.39
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO24.45
Current Opponent ELO-24.45
Current ELO Difference48.89
Expected score0.07
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Carshalton Athletic

L
Welling United4–0Carshalton Athletic31 Oct · away
Pick: Welling United 47% · hit
L
Aveley2–1Carshalton Athletic24 Oct · away
Pick: Aveley 55% · hit
L
Wingate & Finchley4–2Carshalton Athletic20 Oct · away
Pick: Carshalton Athletic 43% · missed
D
Dulwich Hamlet2–2Carshalton Athletic17 Oct · away
Pick: Dulwich Hamlet 40% · missed
L
Carshalton Athletic1–2Enfield Town12 Oct · home
Pick: Carshalton Athletic 44% · missed

Cheshunt

W
Cheshunt3–1Chatham Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Chatham Town 56% · missed
L
Brentwood Town4–2Cheshunt27 Oct · away
Pick: Brentwood Town 42% · hit
L
Stanway Rovers3–0Cheshunt24 Oct · away
Pick: Cheshunt 42% · missed
D
Cheshunt1–1Whitehawk17 Oct · home
Pick: Cheshunt 53% · missed
W
Cheshunt2–1Aveley6 Oct · home
Pick: Aveley 55% · missed

About this match

Carshalton Athletic and Cheshunt meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Carshalton Athletic win 57.0%, draw 21.2%, Cheshunt win 21.8%. The pick is Carshalton Athletic win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.1%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.