ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 17 2026

St Albans City vs Welling United

St Albans City Home · Elo 1,504
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Welling United Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Welling United win
St Albans City win
35.2%
Draw
26.5%
Welling United winPick
38.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.3%
Under 2.538.7%

How much we know

St Albans City history81 matches
Welling United history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Welling United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,504 against 1,490. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • St Albans City score more

    1.57 goals a game over 81 matches for St Albans City, against 1.22 over 74 for Welling United.

  • St Albans City concede fewer

    St Albans City concede 1.38 a game, Welling United 1.97.

  • Welling United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of St Albans City matches, against 64% for Welling United. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
St Albans City
Welling United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.2
ELO
1490.2
81
ELO · Matches
74
1504.2
Current Team ELO
1490.2
1490.2
Current Opponent ELO
1504.2
14.07
Current ELO Difference
-14.07
0.52
Expected score
0.48
81
History Matches
74
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
49.91
Overperformance
49.45
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.90
1.90
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
81
Matches
74
1.42
PPG
1.03
39.5%
Win rate
29.7%
23.5%
Draw rate
13.5%
37.0%
Loss rate
56.8%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
49.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.5%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
39
1.64
PPG
0.82
48.7%
Win rate
25.6%
17.9%
Draw rate
5.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
69.2%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
74.4%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
41.0%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
39
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.22
81.5%
Scoring rate
68.9%
59.3%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.23
84.6%
Scoring rate
74.4%
51.3%
BTTS rate
69.2%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
81
History Matches
74
1.57
Goals Mean
1.22
1.32
Goals Std
1.12
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
68.9%
42.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.8%
18.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.9%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.97
74.1%
Conceding rate
86.5%
1.10
Goals against per game
2.28
61.5%
Conceding rate
94.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
81
History Matches
74
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.97
1.34
Conceded Std
1.67
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.1%
16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.7%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
2.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
5.1%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
5.1%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
81
History Matches
74
0.98
Result entropy
0.87
1.89
Goal Difference Std
2.25
2.16
Stability score
13.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
73
22
Lead Matches
15
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.84
28
Trailing Matches
33
21.4%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
3.6%
Trailing Win Rate
6.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
68
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
6
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.25
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.69
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.25
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.92
58.43
Portability Score
44.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
81
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO14.07
PPG0.39
GF0.35
GA-0.59
PPG-0.75
PPG0.82
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate12.6%
Scored 2+ rate8.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.59
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches7
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-11.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate10.9%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate3.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.92
Portability Score14.14
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.61
Current Team ELO14.07
Current Opponent ELO-14.07
Current ELO Difference28.14
Expected score0.04
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

St Albans City

L
Aveley1–0St Albans City2 Nov · away
Pick: Aveley 60% · hit
W
Whitehawk1–3St Albans City31 Oct · away
Pick: St Albans City 45% · hit
W
St Albans City3–1Burgess Hill Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Burgess Hill Town 40% · missed
L
Whitehawk1–0St Albans City24 Oct · away
Pick: St Albans City 47% · missed
D
Cheshunt1–1St Albans City31 Aug · away
Pick: Cheshunt 40% · missed

Welling United

W
Welling United4–0Carshalton Athletic31 Oct · home
Pick: Welling United 47% · hit
W
Welling United1–0Leatherhead27 Oct · home
Pick: Welling United 55% · hit
L
Chatham Town3–2Welling United24 Oct · away
Pick: Chatham Town 46% · hit
W
Welling United4–2Burgess Hill Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Welling United 55% · hit
W
Maldon & Tiptree0–1Welling United6 Oct · away
Pick: Welling United 44% · hit

About this match

St Albans City and Welling United meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: St Albans City win 35.2%, draw 26.5%, Welling United win 38.3%. The pick is Welling United win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.3%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.