ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 17 2026

Dartford vs Eastbourne Borough

Dartford Home · Elo 1,611
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eastbourne Borough Away · Elo 1,431
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dartford win
Dartford winPick
46.0%
Draw
25.4%
Eastbourne Borough win
28.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.5%
Under 2.536.5%

How much we know

Dartford history76 matches
Eastbourne Borough history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dartford are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dartford are rated 180 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,611 against 1,431. On rating alone Dartford would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Dartford score more

    1.76 goals a game over 76 matches for Dartford, against 1.53 over 77 for Eastbourne Borough.

  • Dartford concede fewer

    Dartford concede 1.30 a game, Eastbourne Borough 1.75.

  • Eastbourne Borough games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Dartford matches, against 69% for Eastbourne Borough. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dartford
Eastbourne Borough
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1611.0
ELO
1431.0
76
ELO · Matches
77
1611.0
Current Team ELO
1431.0
1431.0
Current Opponent ELO
1611.0
179.9
Current ELO Difference
-179.9
0.74
Expected score
0.26
76
History Matches
77
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.04
55.89
Overperformance
46.85
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.10
1.60
Goals for per game
1.90
0.90
Goals against per game
2.20
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
77
1.72
PPG
1.13
48.7%
Win rate
31.2%
26.3%
Draw rate
19.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
49.4%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.3%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
37
1.90
PPG
1.00
56.4%
Win rate
29.7%
20.5%
Draw rate
10.8%
23.1%
Loss rate
59.5%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
41.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
39
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.76
Goals for per game
1.53
84.2%
Scoring rate
74.0%
56.6%
BTTS rate
61.0%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.30
84.6%
Scoring rate
67.6%
51.3%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
77
1.76
Goals Mean
1.53
1.28
Goals Std
1.41
84.2%
Scored 1+ rate
74.0%
56.6%
Scored 2+ rate
41.6%
22.4%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.75
69.7%
Conceding rate
83.1%
1.15
Goals against per game
2.00
64.1%
Conceding rate
83.8%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
77
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.11
Conceded Std
1.25
43.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
59.7%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.1%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.9%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.9%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
77
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.07
4.58
Stability score
6.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
76
28
Lead Matches
25
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
52.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.59
22
Trailing Matches
23
45.5%
Non-loss rate
13.0%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
63
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
9
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
1.75
75.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
8
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.66
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.62
57.96
Portability Score
43.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO179.9
PPG0.59
GF0.23
GA-0.45
PPG0.50
PPG0.90
PPG1.00
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate19.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate10.2%
Scored 2+ rate15.0%
Scored 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score-1.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.47
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate26.6%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate32.4%
Trailing Win Rate13.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.62
Portability Score14.89
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.59
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.89
Current Team ELO179.9
Current Opponent ELO-179.9
Current ELO Difference359.9
Expected score0.48
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance9.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dartford

W
Lewes1–2Dartford3 Nov · away
Pick: Dartford 43% · hit
L
Aveley4–3Dartford31 Oct · away
Pick: Aveley 52% · hit
W
Dartford3–2Three Bridges24 Oct · home
Pick: Dartford 63% · hit
L
Brentwood Town3–0Dartford20 Oct · away
Pick: Dartford 43% · missed
L
Whyteleafe2–1Dartford17 Oct · away
Pick: Dartford 72% · missed

Eastbourne Borough

W
Eastbourne Borough1–0Stanway Rovers3 Nov · home
Pick: Eastbourne Borough 65% · hit
W
Eastbourne Borough2–0Ramsgate31 Oct · home
Pick: Eastbourne Borough 44% · hit
W
Maldon & Tiptree1–2Eastbourne Borough27 Oct · away
Pick: Eastbourne Borough 44% · hit
W
Three Bridges0–2Eastbourne Borough20 Oct · away
Pick: Eastbourne Borough 47% · hit
L
Salisbury3–0Eastbourne Borough17 Oct · away
Pick: Salisbury 45% · hit

About this match

Dartford and Eastbourne Borough meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dartford win 46.0%, draw 25.4%, Eastbourne Borough win 28.5%. The pick is Dartford win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.5%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.