ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 17 2026

Ramsgate vs Aveley

Ramsgate Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aveley Away · Elo 1,577
Southwood Stadium, Ramsgate Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aveley win
Ramsgate win
33.0%
Draw
23.2%
Aveley winPick
43.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.0%
No36.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

How much we know

Ramsgate history62 matches
Aveley history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Aveley are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Aveley are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,577 against 1,514. On rating alone Aveley would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Ramsgate score more

    2.00 goals a game over 62 matches for Ramsgate, against 1.80 over 83 for Aveley.

  • Defences are close

    Ramsgate concede 1.53 a game, Aveley 1.55.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Ramsgate matches, against 61% for Aveley. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ramsgate
Aveley
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.3
ELO
1576.8
62
ELO · Matches
83
1514.3
Current Team ELO
1576.8
1576.8
Current Opponent ELO
1514.3
-62.45
Current ELO Difference
62.45
0.41
Expected score
0.59
62
History Matches
83
0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
51.23
Overperformance
53.86
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
1.70
Goals for per game
2.70
1.80
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
83
1.53
PPG
1.55
43.5%
Win rate
44.6%
22.6%
Draw rate
21.7%
33.9%
Loss rate
33.7%
85.5%
Over 1.5 rate
83.1%
69.4%
Over 2.5 rate
61.4%
51.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
40
1.58
PPG
1.63
45.5%
Win rate
47.5%
21.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
32.5%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.5%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
42.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
33
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
85.5%
Scoring rate
78.3%
64.5%
BTTS rate
55.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.70
87.9%
Scoring rate
72.5%
63.6%
BTTS rate
47.5%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
62
History Matches
83
2.00
Goals Mean
1.80
1.43
Goals Std
1.45
85.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.3%
56.5%
Scored 2+ rate
53.0%
33.9%
Scored 3+ rate
30.1%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
1.55
75.8%
Conceding rate
74.7%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.40
75.8%
Conceding rate
72.5%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
83
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.33
Conceded Std
1.28
41.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.4%
21.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
83
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
2.12
Goal Difference Std
1.99
3.08
Stability score
3.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
82
19
Lead Matches
32
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
78.1%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.81
16
Trailing Matches
26
18.8%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.87
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
14
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.29
52
Normal Rest History Matches
59
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
7
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.75
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.10
Portability PPG Range
1.37
50.48
Portability Score
51.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-62.45
PPG-0.02
GF0.20
GA-0.02
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-21
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate7.2%
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches-21
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches-21
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score-0.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.69
Eligible Matches-21
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate0.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-21
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.26
Portability Score-1.35
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-12
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO-62.45
Current Opponent ELO62.45
Current ELO Difference-124.9
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-21
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ramsgate

L
Eastbourne Borough2–0Ramsgate31 Oct · away
Pick: Eastbourne Borough 44% · hit
W
Ramsgate2–0Stanway Rovers20 Oct · home
Pick: Ramsgate 59% · hit
L
Wingate & Finchley2–0Ramsgate13 Oct · away
Pick: Ramsgate 43% · missed
W
Dartford1–2Ramsgate6 Oct · away
Pick: Dartford 51% · missed
W
Ramsgate5–1Whyteleafe31 Aug · home
Pick: Ramsgate 77% · hit

Aveley

W
Aveley1–0St Albans City2 Nov · home
Pick: Aveley 60% · hit
W
Aveley4–3Dartford31 Oct · home
Pick: Aveley 52% · hit
W
Aveley2–1Carshalton Athletic24 Oct · home
Pick: Aveley 55% · hit
L
Aveley1–2Maldon & Tiptree19 Oct · home
Pick: Aveley 65% · missed
W
Aveley1–0Chatham Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Chatham Town 40% · missed

About this match

Ramsgate and Aveley meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Southwood Stadium, Ramsgate. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ramsgate win 33.0%, draw 23.2%, Aveley win 43.9%. The pick is Aveley win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 64.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.