ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 17 2026

Dulwich Hamlet vs Lewes

Dulwich Hamlet Home · Elo 1,517
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lewes Away · Elo 1,456
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dulwich Hamlet win
Dulwich Hamlet winPick
55.2%
Draw
21.1%
Lewes win
23.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.2%
Under 2.538.8%

How much we know

Dulwich Hamlet history65 matches
Lewes history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dulwich Hamlet are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dulwich Hamlet are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,517 against 1,456. On rating alone Dulwich Hamlet would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Dulwich Hamlet score more

    1.42 goals a game over 65 matches for Dulwich Hamlet, against 1.26 over 66 for Lewes.

  • Dulwich Hamlet concede fewer

    Dulwich Hamlet concede 1.37 a game, Lewes 1.85.

  • Lewes games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Dulwich Hamlet matches, against 71% for Lewes. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dulwich Hamlet
Lewes
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.2
ELO
1456.1
65
ELO · Matches
66
1517.2
Current Team ELO
1456.1
1456.1
Current Opponent ELO
1517.2
61.13
Current ELO Difference
-61.13
0.59
Expected score
0.41
65
History Matches
66
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
51.39
Overperformance
47.54
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
66
1.37
PPG
1.23
38.5%
Win rate
34.8%
21.5%
Draw rate
18.2%
40.0%
Loss rate
47.0%
72.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.3%
52.3%
Over 2.5 rate
71.2%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
33
1.65
PPG
0.91
50.0%
Win rate
24.2%
14.7%
Draw rate
18.2%
35.3%
Loss rate
57.6%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
34
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.26
70.8%
Scoring rate
68.2%
52.3%
BTTS rate
53.0%
1.79
Goals for per game
0.94
76.5%
Scoring rate
60.6%
52.9%
BTTS rate
48.5%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
65
History Matches
66
1.42
Goals Mean
1.26
1.31
Goals Std
1.17
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
68.2%
41.5%
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
18.5%
Scored 3+ rate
15.2%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.85
75.4%
Conceding rate
78.8%
1.35
Goals against per game
2.00
73.5%
Conceding rate
78.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
66
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.85
1.20
Conceded Std
1.47
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
21.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
66
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.08
3.09
Stability score
6.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
66
22
Lead Matches
15
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.80
17
Trailing Matches
25
17.6%
Non-loss rate
16.0%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
53
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
8
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
3.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.75
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.65
68.47
Portability Score
64.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO61.13
PPG0.14
GF0.16
GA-0.48
PPG-0.25
PPG0.74
PPG-0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate5.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.48
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-2.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate1.6%
Trailing Win Rate1.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.15
Portability Score3.51
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.75
Current Team ELO61.13
Current Opponent ELO-61.13
Current ELO Difference122.3
Expected score0.17
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dulwich Hamlet

L
Whyteleafe4–2Dulwich Hamlet31 Oct · away
Pick: Dulwich Hamlet 68% · missed
W
Whitehawk1–2Dulwich Hamlet27 Oct · away
Pick: Dulwich Hamlet 53% · hit
D
Maldon & Tiptree1–1Dulwich Hamlet24 Oct · away
Pick: Dulwich Hamlet 45% · missed
L
Dulwich Hamlet0–4Chatham Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Chatham Town 35% · hit
D
Dulwich Hamlet2–2Carshalton Athletic17 Oct · home
Pick: Dulwich Hamlet 40% · missed

Lewes

L
Lewes1–2Dartford3 Nov · home
Pick: Dartford 43% · hit
D
Lewes2–2Wingate & Finchley31 Oct · home
Pick: Lewes 42% · missed
D
Lewes1–1Maldon & Tiptree17 Oct · home
Pick: Lewes 56% · missed
W
Three Bridges1–2Lewes13 Oct · away
Pick: Lewes 44% · hit
W
Lewes1–0Eastbourne Borough31 Aug · home
Pick: Eastbourne Borough 41% · missed

About this match

Dulwich Hamlet and Lewes meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dulwich Hamlet win 55.2%, draw 21.1%, Lewes win 23.7%. The pick is Dulwich Hamlet win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.2%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.