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3. liga - West Slovakia West - 15 2026

Častkovce vs Gabčíkovo

Častkovce Home · Elo 1,449
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gabčíkovo Away · Elo 1,507
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gabčíkovo win
Častkovce win
37.6%
Draw
20.2%
Gabčíkovo winPick
42.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.6%
No37.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.5%
Under 2.534.5%

How much we know

Častkovce history48 matches
Gabčíkovo history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Gabčíkovo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gabčíkovo are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,507 against 1,449. On rating alone Gabčíkovo would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.56 goals a game over 48 matches for Častkovce, against 1.59 over 34 for Gabčíkovo.

  • Defences are close

    Častkovce concede 1.90 a game, Gabčíkovo 1.94.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Častkovce matches, against 59% for Gabčíkovo. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Častkovce
Gabčíkovo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1448.6
ELO
1506.6
48
ELO · Matches
34
1448.6
Current Team ELO
1506.6
1506.6
Current Opponent ELO
1448.6
-58.04
Current ELO Difference
58.04
0.42
Expected score
0.58
48
History Matches
34
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
46.26
Overperformance
50.31
-0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
3.00
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
2.30
Goals against per game
1.90
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.87
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
34
1.15
PPG
1.38
29.2%
Win rate
41.2%
27.1%
Draw rate
14.7%
43.8%
Loss rate
44.1%
89.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
18
1.54
PPG
0.50
41.7%
Win rate
11.1%
29.2%
Draw rate
16.7%
29.2%
Loss rate
72.2%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
61.1%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
24
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.59
81.3%
Scoring rate
88.2%
72.9%
BTTS rate
64.7%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.28
83.3%
Scoring rate
83.3%
70.8%
BTTS rate
77.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
48
History Matches
34
1.56
Goals Mean
1.59
1.27
Goals Std
1.17
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
88.2%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.90
Goals against per game
1.94
85.4%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.96
Goals against per game
2.94
79.2%
Conceding rate
94.4%
3.33
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
48
History Matches
34
1.90
Conceded Mean
1.94
1.48
Conceded Std
1.76
54.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
29.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.4%
1.96
Venue Conceded Mean
2.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
34
0.98
Result entropy
0.92
1.98
Goal Difference Std
2.21
2.17
Stability score
8.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
33
9
Lead Matches
8
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
8
11.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.90
Rest days
83.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
13
0.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.28
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.60
47.31
Portability Score
63.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-58.04
PPG-0.24
GF-0.03
GA-0.05
PPG-2.00
PPG1.04
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate7.0%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate15.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.71
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate4.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.99
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches14
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-6.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.62
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate13.9%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.73
Portability Score-16.56
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.71
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO-58.04
Current Opponent ELO58.04
Current ELO Difference-116.1
Expected score-0.17
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Častkovce

W
Častkovce1–0Trenčín II31 Oct · home
Pick: Častkovce 41% · hit
L
Nové Zámky2–0Častkovce24 Oct · away
Pick: Nové Zámky 65% · hit
W
Častkovce1–0Veľké Ludince17 Oct · home
Pick: Častkovce 52% · hit
W
DAC II1–3Častkovce29 Aug · away
Pick: DAC II 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gabčíkovo

W
Beluša2–3Gabčíkovo25 Oct · away
Pick: Beluša 65% · missed
W
Gabčíkovo3–2Trenčín II17 Oct · home
Pick: Gabčíkovo 44% · hit
W
Rača1–2Gabčíkovo30 Aug · away
Pick: Rača 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Častkovce and Gabčíkovo meet in 3. liga - West on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Častkovce win 37.6%, draw 20.2%, Gabčíkovo win 42.1%. The pick is Gabčíkovo win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.5%. Both teams to score: 62.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.