ScoreProb
League Two China Relegation Group - 30 2026

Changchun Xidu vs Yichun Grand Tiger

Changchun Xidu Home · Elo 1,455
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Yichun Grand Tiger Away · Elo 1,459
Yatai Training Base Stadium, Changchun Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Changchun Xidu win
Changchun Xidu winPick
38.4%
Draw
36.1%
Yichun Grand Tiger win
25.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.6%
No58.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.532.7%
Under 2.567.3%

How much we know

Changchun Xidu history54 matches
Yichun Grand Tiger history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Changchun Xidu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,455 against 1,459. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.76 goals a game over 54 matches for Changchun Xidu, against 0.83 over 54 for Yichun Grand Tiger.

  • Defences are close

    Changchun Xidu concede 1.13 a game, Yichun Grand Tiger 1.17.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    31% of Changchun Xidu matches, against 35% for Yichun Grand Tiger. The model puts this match at 33% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Changchun Xidu
Yichun Grand Tiger
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.4
ELO
1458.5
54
ELO · Matches
54
1455.4
Current Team ELO
1458.5
1458.5
Current Opponent ELO
1455.4
-3.11
Current ELO Difference
3.11
0.50
Expected score
0.50
54
History Matches
54
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.04
47.00
Overperformance
47.24
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
0.70
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
54
1.13
PPG
1.09
24.1%
Win rate
24.1%
40.7%
Draw rate
37.0%
35.2%
Loss rate
38.9%
53.7%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
31.5%
Over 2.5 rate
35.2%
14.8%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
1.22
PPG
1.07
29.6%
Win rate
22.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
40.7%
37.0%
Loss rate
37.0%
51.9%
Over 1.5 rate
51.9%
18.5%
Over 2.5 rate
29.6%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.76
Goals for per game
0.83
55.6%
Scoring rate
51.9%
37.0%
BTTS rate
40.7%
0.70
Goals for per game
0.67
55.6%
Scoring rate
44.4%
29.6%
BTTS rate
33.3%
0.68
Goals for per game
0.68
54.5%
Scoring rate
54.5%
45.5%
BTTS rate
45.5%
54
History Matches
54
0.76
Goals Mean
0.83
0.79
Goals Std
0.96
55.6%
Scored 1+ rate
51.9%
18.5%
Scored 2+ rate
24.1%
1.9%
Scored 3+ rate
7.4%
0.70
Venue Goals Mean
0.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.17
59.3%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.11
59.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.05
72.7%
Conceding rate
72.7%
54
History Matches
54
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.28
Conceded Std
0.98
27.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.6%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
54
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.39
2.04
Stability score
1.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
54
15
Lead Matches
9
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.78
13
Trailing Matches
19
30.8%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
34
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.97
17
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
0.91
PPG
1.00
13.6%
Win rate
18.2%
50.0%
Draw rate
45.5%
36.4%
Loss rate
36.4%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
59.1%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
22.7%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.23
22
Current Competition Matches
22
0.91
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.59
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.36
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.17
68.61
Portability Score
85.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-3.11
PPG0.04
GF-0.07
GA-0.04
PPG-0.09
PPG0.15
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate3.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score0.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate6.7%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate4.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.23
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.29
Portability Score-16.69
Rest days1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.09
Current Team ELO-3.11
Current Opponent ELO3.11
Current ELO Difference-6.22
Expected score-0.01
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Changchun Xidu

D
Guangzhou Dandelion0–0Changchun Xidu31 Oct · away
Pick: Guangzhou Dandelion 48% · missed
D
Guangdong Mingtu0–0Changchun Xidu25 Oct · away
Pick: Guangdong Mingtu 48% · missed
W
Changchun Xidu1–0Hubei Chufeng Heli18 Oct · home
Pick: Hubei Chufeng Heli 36% · missed
W
Yichun Grand Tiger1–2Changchun Xidu12 Oct · away
Pick: Yichun Grand Tiger 44% · missed
D
Changchun Xidu1–1Guangzhou Dandelion6 Oct · home
Pick: Guangzhou Dandelion 33% · missed

Yichun Grand Tiger

L
Yichun Grand Tiger0–1Shanghai Second31 Oct · home
Pick: Yichun Grand Tiger 52% · missed
D
Yichun Grand Tiger0–0Rizhao Yuqi24 Oct · home
Pick: Yichun Grand Tiger 35% · missed
L
Dalian Yingbo B4–0Yichun Grand Tiger18 Oct · away
Pick: Dalian Yingbo B 45% · hit
L
Yichun Grand Tiger1–2Changchun Xidu12 Oct · home
Pick: Yichun Grand Tiger 44% · missed
D
Shanghai Second1–1Yichun Grand Tiger6 Oct · away
Pick: Shanghai Second 35% · missed

About this match

Changchun Xidu and Yichun Grand Tiger meet in League Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Yatai Training Base Stadium, Changchun. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Changchun Xidu win 38.4%, draw 36.1%, Yichun Grand Tiger win 25.5%. The pick is Changchun Xidu win. Over 2.5 goals: 32.7%. Both teams to score: 41.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.