ScoreProb
League Two China Relegation Group - 30 2026

Shanghai Second vs Guangzhou Dandelion

Shanghai Second Home · Elo 1,431
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guangzhou Dandelion Away · Elo 1,468
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Guangzhou Dandelion win
Shanghai Second win
30.7%
Draw
30.1%
Guangzhou Dandelion winPick
39.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%

How much we know

Shanghai Second history25 matches
Guangzhou Dandelion history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Guangzhou Dandelion are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Guangzhou Dandelion are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,468 against 1,431. On rating alone Guangzhou Dandelion would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.00 goals a game over 25 matches for Shanghai Second, against 1.07 over 56 for Guangzhou Dandelion.

  • Guangzhou Dandelion concede fewer

    Shanghai Second concede 1.64 a game, Guangzhou Dandelion 1.07.

  • Shanghai Second games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Shanghai Second matches, against 39% for Guangzhou Dandelion. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shanghai Second
Guangzhou Dandelion
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1431.3
ELO
1467.6
25
ELO · Matches
56
1431.3
Current Team ELO
1467.6
1467.6
Current Opponent ELO
1431.3
-36.36
Current ELO Difference
36.36
0.45
Expected score
0.55
25
History Matches
56
-0.12
Residual Mean
-0.02
43.06
Overperformance
48.32
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
0.80
0.90
Goals for per game
0.70
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
0.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
25
Matches
56
0.84
PPG
1.34
16.0%
Win rate
35.7%
36.0%
Draw rate
26.8%
48.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.7%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
26
0.86
PPG
1.15
21.4%
Win rate
26.9%
21.4%
Draw rate
34.6%
57.1%
Loss rate
38.5%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
7.1%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
14
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.07
76.0%
Scoring rate
64.3%
64.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
0.71
Goals for per game
0.85
64.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
38.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
72.7%
Scoring rate
59.1%
68.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
25
History Matches
56
1.00
Goals Mean
1.07
0.69
Goals Std
1.05
76.0%
Scored 1+ rate
64.3%
24.0%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
0.71
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.07
84.0%
Conceding rate
60.7%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.00
78.6%
Conceding rate
65.4%
1.77
Goals against per game
1.27
90.9%
Conceding rate
63.6%
25
History Matches
56
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.20
Conceded Std
1.07
60.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.9%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
25
History Matches
56
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
1.29
Goal Difference Std
1.40
7.76
Stability score
0.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
56
7
Lead Matches
21
14.3%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.38
Lead Points Retention
0.75
5
Trailing Matches
10
20.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
1.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.94
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
17
Normal Rest History Matches
41
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
7
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
0.68
PPG
1.14
9.1%
Win rate
27.3%
40.9%
Draw rate
31.8%
50.0%
Loss rate
40.9%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
22
Current Competition Matches
22
0.68
Current Competition PPG
1.14
-0.77
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.27
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.66
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.32
Portability PPG Range
0.86
43.14
Portability Score
58.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
25
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-36.36
PPG-0.50
GF-0.07
GA0.57
PPG-0.45
PPG-0.30
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-31
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate11.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate26.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.95
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score6.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.53
Eligible Matches-31
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.57
Lead Points Retention-0.37
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-31
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.45
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.45
Portability Score-15.35
Rest days1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Current Team ELO-36.36
Current Opponent ELO36.36
Current ELO Difference-72.71
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-31
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-5.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shanghai Second

W
Yichun Grand Tiger0–1Shanghai Second31 Oct · away
Pick: Yichun Grand Tiger 52% · missed
D
Hubei Chufeng Heli1–1Shanghai Second25 Oct · away
Pick: Hubei Chufeng Heli 56% · missed
D
Shanghai Second1–1Guangdong Mingtu17 Oct · home
Pick: Guangdong Mingtu 36% · missed
L
Guangzhou Dandelion3–1Shanghai Second12 Oct · away
Pick: Guangzhou Dandelion 55% · hit
D
Shanghai Second1–1Yichun Grand Tiger6 Oct · home
Pick: Shanghai Second 35% · missed

Guangzhou Dandelion

D
Guangzhou Dandelion0–0Changchun Xidu31 Oct · home
Pick: Guangzhou Dandelion 48% · missed
L
Guangzhou Dandelion1–2Dalian Yingbo B24 Oct · home
Pick: Guangzhou Dandelion 48% · missed
D
Rizhao Yuqi0–0Guangzhou Dandelion17 Oct · away
Pick: Rizhao Yuqi 41% · missed
W
Guangzhou Dandelion3–1Shanghai Second12 Oct · home
Pick: Guangzhou Dandelion 55% · hit
D
Changchun Xidu1–1Guangzhou Dandelion6 Oct · away
Pick: Guangzhou Dandelion 33% · missed

About this match

Shanghai Second and Guangzhou Dandelion meet in League Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Shanghai Second win 30.7%, draw 30.1%, Guangzhou Dandelion win 39.1%. The pick is Guangzhou Dandelion win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.