ScoreProb
League Two China Relegation Group - 30 2026

Guangdong Mingtu vs Rizhao Yuqi

Guangdong Mingtu Home · Elo 1,468
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rizhao Yuqi Away · Elo 1,523
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Guangdong Mingtu win
Guangdong Mingtu winPick
42.4%
Draw
30.5%
Rizhao Yuqi win
27.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.9%
Under 2.563.1%

How much we know

Guangdong Mingtu history54 matches
Rizhao Yuqi history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Guangdong Mingtu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rizhao Yuqi are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,523 against 1,468. On rating alone Rizhao Yuqi would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.96 goals a game over 54 matches for Guangdong Mingtu, against 0.95 over 58 for Rizhao Yuqi.

  • Rizhao Yuqi concede fewer

    Guangdong Mingtu concede 1.17 a game, Rizhao Yuqi 0.93.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Guangdong Mingtu matches, against 33% for Rizhao Yuqi. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Guangdong Mingtu
Rizhao Yuqi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.8
ELO
1522.8
54
ELO · Matches
58
1467.8
Current Team ELO
1522.8
1522.8
Current Opponent ELO
1467.8
-54.98
Current ELO Difference
54.98
0.42
Expected score
0.58
54
History Matches
58
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
47.96
Overperformance
51.67
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.20
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
0.60
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
58
1.09
PPG
1.36
24.1%
Win rate
31.0%
37.0%
Draw rate
43.1%
38.9%
Loss rate
25.9%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
32.8%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
17.2%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
28
1.11
PPG
1.32
25.9%
Win rate
28.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
46.4%
40.7%
Loss rate
25.0%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
27
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.96
Goals for per game
0.95
63.0%
Scoring rate
55.2%
46.3%
BTTS rate
36.2%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.00
74.1%
Scoring rate
50.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
39.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.59
63.6%
Scoring rate
45.5%
45.5%
BTTS rate
27.3%
54
History Matches
58
0.96
Goals Mean
0.95
0.90
Goals Std
1.09
63.0%
Scored 1+ rate
55.2%
27.8%
Scored 2+ rate
25.9%
5.6%
Scored 3+ rate
10.3%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
0.93
66.7%
Conceding rate
55.2%
1.22
Goals against per game
0.96
66.7%
Conceding rate
57.1%
0.91
Goals against per game
0.73
54.5%
Conceding rate
36.4%
54
History Matches
58
1.17
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.03
Conceded Std
0.96
37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.2%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
63.6%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
58
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.28
Goal Difference Std
1.40
1.88
Stability score
2.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
58
13
Lead Matches
13
46.2%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.59
Lead Points Retention
0.69
9
Trailing Matches
12
11.1%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.79
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.18
PPG
1.18
22.7%
Win rate
18.2%
50.0%
Draw rate
63.6%
27.3%
Loss rate
18.2%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
31.8%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
27.3%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.92
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.18
Current Competition PPG
1.18
0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.14
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.59
0.18
Portability PPG Range
1.32
84.62
Portability Score
45.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-54.98
PPG-0.27
GF0.01
GA0.24
PPG0.00
PPG-0.21
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate7.8%
Scored 2+ rate1.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-0.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate2.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.23
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.50
Portability PPG Range-1.14
Portability Score38.70
Rest days-1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-54.98
Current Opponent ELO54.98
Current ELO Difference-110.0
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Guangdong Mingtu

W
Dalian Yingbo B1–2Guangdong Mingtu31 Oct · away
Pick: Dalian Yingbo B 42% · missed
D
Guangdong Mingtu0–0Changchun Xidu25 Oct · home
Pick: Guangdong Mingtu 48% · missed
D
Shanghai Second1–1Guangdong Mingtu17 Oct · away
Pick: Guangdong Mingtu 36% · missed
D
Guangdong Mingtu1–1Dalian Yingbo B6 Oct · home
Pick: Guangdong Mingtu 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rizhao Yuqi

W
Rizhao Yuqi3–1Hubei Chufeng Heli31 Oct · home
Pick: Rizhao Yuqi 40% · hit
D
Yichun Grand Tiger0–0Rizhao Yuqi24 Oct · away
Pick: Yichun Grand Tiger 35% · missed
D
Rizhao Yuqi0–0Guangzhou Dandelion17 Oct · home
Pick: Rizhao Yuqi 41% · missed
L
Hubei Chufeng Heli2–0Rizhao Yuqi6 Oct · away
Pick: Hubei Chufeng Heli 40% · hit
L
Beijing Guoan3–1Rizhao Yuqi1 Sep · away
Pick: Beijing Guoan 48% · hit

About this match

Guangdong Mingtu and Rizhao Yuqi meet in League Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Guangdong Mingtu win 42.4%, draw 30.5%, Rizhao Yuqi win 27.1%. The pick is Guangdong Mingtu win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.9%. Both teams to score: 44.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.