ScoreProb
League Two China Relegation Group - 30 2026

Qingdao Red Lions vs Chengdu Rongcheng II

Qingdao Red Lions Home · Elo 1,431
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chengdu Rongcheng II Away · Elo 1,488
Qingdao Tiantai Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Qingdao Red Lions win
Qingdao Red Lions winPick
46.4%
Draw
27.9%
Chengdu Rongcheng II win
25.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.1%
No56.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.4%
Under 2.564.6%

How much we know

Qingdao Red Lions history57 matches
Chengdu Rongcheng II history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Qingdao Red Lions are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chengdu Rongcheng II are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,488 against 1,431. On rating alone Chengdu Rongcheng II would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Chengdu Rongcheng II score far more

    0.79 goals a game over 57 matches for Qingdao Red Lions, against 1.29 over 51 for Chengdu Rongcheng II.

  • Chengdu Rongcheng II concede fewer

    Qingdao Red Lions concede 1.32 a game, Chengdu Rongcheng II 1.00.

  • Chengdu Rongcheng II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    23% of Qingdao Red Lions matches, against 39% for Chengdu Rongcheng II. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Qingdao Red Lions
Chengdu Rongcheng II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1431.2
ELO
1488.3
57
ELO · Matches
51
1431.2
Current Team ELO
1488.3
1488.3
Current Opponent ELO
1431.2
-57.07
Current ELO Difference
57.07
0.42
Expected score
0.58
57
History Matches
51
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.01
45.86
Overperformance
48.94
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.90
0.60
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.64
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
51
0.84
PPG
1.41
17.5%
Win rate
37.3%
31.6%
Draw rate
29.4%
50.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
56.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
22.8%
Over 2.5 rate
39.2%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
26
0.90
PPG
1.23
17.2%
Win rate
30.8%
37.9%
Draw rate
30.8%
44.8%
Loss rate
38.5%
55.2%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
27.6%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
29
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.79
Goals for per game
1.29
52.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
40.4%
BTTS rate
45.1%
0.93
Goals for per game
1.00
55.2%
Scoring rate
61.5%
44.8%
BTTS rate
38.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.82
54.5%
Scoring rate
45.5%
45.5%
BTTS rate
36.4%
57
History Matches
51
0.79
Goals Mean
1.29
1.06
Goals Std
1.38
52.6%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
15.8%
Scored 2+ rate
29.4%
5.3%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
0.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.00
77.2%
Conceding rate
64.7%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.04
75.9%
Conceding rate
65.4%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.09
77.3%
Conceding rate
72.7%
57
History Matches
51
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.30
Conceded Std
0.95
29.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.5%
10.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.9%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
44.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
22.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
44.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
22.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
51
0.92
Result entropy
1.00
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.76
7.78
Stability score
0.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
51
10
Lead Matches
11
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.88
20
Trailing Matches
14
5.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
38
Normal Rest History Matches
28
0.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.14
PPG
1.00
22.7%
Win rate
22.7%
45.5%
Draw rate
31.8%
31.8%
Loss rate
45.5%
54.5%
Over 1.5 rate
54.5%
18.2%
Over 2.5 rate
27.3%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.14
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.27
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.90
Portability PPG Range
0.72
38.93
Portability Score
58.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-57.07
PPG-0.57
GF-0.50
GA0.32
PPG0.14
PPG-0.33
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate14.0%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.32
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score7.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.36
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.42
Portability PPG Range1.18
Portability Score-19.07
Rest days1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-57.07
Current Opponent ELO57.07
Current ELO Difference-114.1
Expected score-0.16
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Qingdao Red Lions

W
Wuhan Three Towns II0–1Qingdao Red Lions31 Oct · away
Pick: Wuhan Three Towns II 36% · missed
W
Qingdao Red Lions1–0Shangyu Pterosaur24 Oct · home
Pick: Qingdao Red Lions 54% · hit
L
Xiamen Feilu3–0Qingdao Red Lions18 Oct · away
Pick: Xiamen Feilu 39% · hit
D
Chengdu Rongcheng II1–1Qingdao Red Lions13 Oct · away
Pick: Chengdu Rongcheng II 40% · missed
L
Qingdao Red Lions0–2Wuhan Three Towns II6 Oct · home
Pick: Qingdao Red Lions 48% · missed

Chengdu Rongcheng II

D
Chengdu Rongcheng II1–1BIT31 Oct · home
Pick: Chengdu Rongcheng II 52% · missed
L
Tai'an Tiankuang3–1Chengdu Rongcheng II24 Oct · away
Pick: Tai'an Tiankuang 46% · hit
L
Chengdu Rongcheng II1–3Nantong Haimen Codion18 Oct · home
Pick: Nantong Haimen Codion 39% · hit
D
Chengdu Rongcheng II1–1Qingdao Red Lions13 Oct · home
Pick: Chengdu Rongcheng II 40% · missed
L
BIT2–0Chengdu Rongcheng II6 Oct · away
Pick: Chengdu Rongcheng II 37% · missed

About this match

Qingdao Red Lions and Chengdu Rongcheng II meet in League Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Qingdao Tiantai Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Qingdao Red Lions win 46.4%, draw 27.9%, Chengdu Rongcheng II win 25.7%. The pick is Qingdao Red Lions win. Over 2.5 goals: 35.4%. Both teams to score: 43.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.