ScoreProb
League Two China Relegation Group - 30 2026

Nantong Haimen Codion vs Shangyu Pterosaur

Nantong Haimen Codion Home · Elo 1,520
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shangyu Pterosaur Away · Elo 1,453
Haimen Sports Center Stadium, Nantong Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nantong Haimen Codion win
Nantong Haimen Codion winPick
56.6%
Draw
25.6%
Shangyu Pterosaur win
17.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.9%
No53.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.9%
Under 2.551.1%

How much we know

Nantong Haimen Codion history55 matches
Shangyu Pterosaur history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Nantong Haimen Codion are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nantong Haimen Codion are rated 66 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,453. On rating alone Nantong Haimen Codion would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Nantong Haimen Codion score far more

    1.45 goals a game over 55 matches for Nantong Haimen Codion, against 0.81 over 53 for Shangyu Pterosaur.

  • Nantong Haimen Codion concede fewer

    Nantong Haimen Codion concede 1.05 a game, Shangyu Pterosaur 1.40.

  • Nantong Haimen Codion games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Nantong Haimen Codion matches, against 34% for Shangyu Pterosaur. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nantong Haimen Codion
Shangyu Pterosaur
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1519.8
ELO
1453.5
55
ELO · Matches
53
1519.8
Current Team ELO
1453.5
1453.5
Current Opponent ELO
1519.8
66.33
Current ELO Difference
-66.33
0.59
Expected score
0.41
55
History Matches
53
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.04
51.14
Overperformance
46.80
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
3.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
2.20
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.99
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
53
1.44
PPG
1.09
34.5%
Win rate
24.5%
40.0%
Draw rate
35.8%
25.5%
Loss rate
39.6%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
47.3%
Over 2.5 rate
34.0%
29.1%
Over 3.5 rate
17.0%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
1.63
PPG
0.74
37.0%
Win rate
14.8%
51.9%
Draw rate
29.6%
11.1%
Loss rate
55.6%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
0.81
70.9%
Scoring rate
56.6%
49.1%
BTTS rate
37.7%
1.96
Goals for per game
0.41
77.8%
Scoring rate
33.3%
55.6%
BTTS rate
22.2%
1.14
Goals for per game
0.86
68.2%
Scoring rate
59.1%
54.5%
BTTS rate
36.4%
55
History Matches
53
1.45
Goals Mean
0.81
1.41
Goals Std
0.89
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
56.6%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
18.9%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
3.8%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
0.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.70
59.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.45
63.6%
Conceding rate
63.6%
55
History Matches
53
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.13
Conceded Std
1.39
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.5%
5.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
43.4%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
43.4%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
53
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.71
1.51
Stability score
1.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
53
15
Lead Matches
8
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
22
42.9%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.26
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
35
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.97
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.18
PPG
1.18
22.7%
Win rate
27.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
36.4%
27.3%
Loss rate
36.4%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.18
Current Competition PPG
1.18
0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.59
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.45
Portability PPG Range
0.08
68.89
Portability Score
92.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO66.33
PPG0.34
GF0.64
GA-0.34
PPG0.00
PPG0.89
PPG2.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.44
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.64
Goals Std0.52
Scored 1+ rate14.3%
Scored 2+ rate23.0%
Scored 3+ rate14.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.16
History Matches2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-0.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.19
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate6.5%
Trailing Win Rate2.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.68
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.37
Portability Score-23.84
Rest days1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO66.33
Current Opponent ELO-66.33
Current ELO Difference132.7
Expected score0.19
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nantong Haimen Codion

W
Xiamen Feilu0–1Nantong Haimen Codion31 Oct · away
Pick: Xiamen Feilu 36% · missed
W
Nantong Haimen Codion3–0Wuhan Three Towns II25 Oct · home
Pick: Nantong Haimen Codion 53% · hit
W
Chengdu Rongcheng II1–3Nantong Haimen Codion18 Oct · away
Pick: Nantong Haimen Codion 39% · hit
W
Nantong Haimen Codion2–0Xiamen Feilu7 Oct · home
Pick: Nantong Haimen Codion 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Shangyu Pterosaur

L
Qingdao Red Lions1–0Shangyu Pterosaur24 Oct · away
Pick: Qingdao Red Lions 54% · hit
D
Shangyu Pterosaur1–1BIT17 Oct · home
Pick: Shangyu Pterosaur 47% · missed
L
Tai'an Tiankuang3–0Shangyu Pterosaur7 Oct · away
Pick: Tai'an Tiankuang 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nantong Haimen Codion and Shangyu Pterosaur meet in League Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Haimen Sports Center Stadium, Nantong. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Nantong Haimen Codion win 56.6%, draw 25.6%, Shangyu Pterosaur win 17.8%. The pick is Nantong Haimen Codion win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.9%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.