ScoreProb
League Two China Relegation Group - 30 2026

BIT vs Wuhan Three Towns II

BIT Home · Elo 1,421
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wuhan Three Towns II Away · Elo 1,441
Beijing Institute of Technology Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wuhan Three Towns II win
BIT win
35.7%
Draw
26.8%
Wuhan Three Towns II winPick
37.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.2%
Under 2.553.8%

How much we know

BIT history53 matches
Wuhan Three Towns II history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Wuhan Three Towns II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,421 against 1,441. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • BIT score more

    1.13 goals a game over 53 matches for BIT, against 0.94 over 51 for Wuhan Three Towns II.

  • Wuhan Three Towns II concede fewer

    BIT concede 1.45 a game, Wuhan Three Towns II 1.04.

  • BIT games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of BIT matches, against 31% for Wuhan Three Towns II. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
BIT
Wuhan Three Towns II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1421.0
ELO
1441.2
53
ELO · Matches
51
1421.0
Current Team ELO
1441.2
1441.2
Current Opponent ELO
1421.0
-20.26
Current ELO Difference
20.26
0.47
Expected score
0.53
53
History Matches
51
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.06
44.64
Overperformance
46.04
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
2.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.07
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
51
1.00
PPG
1.10
26.4%
Win rate
27.5%
20.8%
Draw rate
27.5%
52.8%
Loss rate
45.1%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
60.8%
43.4%
Over 2.5 rate
31.4%
24.5%
Over 3.5 rate
9.8%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
1.12
PPG
1.08
30.8%
Win rate
28.0%
19.2%
Draw rate
24.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
48.0%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
0.94
64.2%
Scoring rate
62.7%
45.3%
BTTS rate
45.1%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.12
69.2%
Scoring rate
76.0%
46.2%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.95
Goals for per game
0.91
68.2%
Scoring rate
59.1%
63.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
51
1.13
Goals Mean
0.94
1.17
Goals Std
1.04
64.2%
Scored 1+ rate
62.7%
30.2%
Scored 2+ rate
17.6%
13.2%
Scored 3+ rate
7.8%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.04
75.5%
Conceding rate
74.5%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.24
76.9%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.91
Goals against per game
1.18
86.4%
Conceding rate
81.8%
53
History Matches
51
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.30
Conceded Std
0.79
41.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.9%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
51
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.40
7.60
Stability score
2.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
51
9
Lead Matches
8
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.83
18
Trailing Matches
17
5.6%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
30
0.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
16
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
0.73
PPG
0.86
13.6%
Win rate
18.2%
31.8%
Draw rate
31.8%
54.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
22
Current Competition Matches
22
0.73
Current Competition PPG
0.86
-0.95
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.27
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.48
Portability PPG Range
0.41
67.58
Portability Score
70.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-20.26
PPG-0.10
GF0.19
GA0.41
PPG-0.14
PPG0.04
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate1.4%
Scored 2+ rate12.5%
Scored 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.41
Conceded Std0.51
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate13.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.81
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score4.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate13.9%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.68
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.07
Portability Score-3.23
Rest days1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.53
Current Team ELO-20.26
Current Opponent ELO20.26
Current ELO Difference-40.51
Expected score-0.06
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

BIT

D
Chengdu Rongcheng II1–1BIT31 Oct · away
Pick: Chengdu Rongcheng II 52% · missed
D
BIT2–2Xiamen Feilu24 Oct · home
Pick: BIT 39% · missed
D
Shangyu Pterosaur1–1BIT17 Oct · away
Pick: Shangyu Pterosaur 47% · missed
W
BIT2–0Chengdu Rongcheng II6 Oct · home
Pick: Chengdu Rongcheng II 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wuhan Three Towns II

L
Wuhan Three Towns II0–1Qingdao Red Lions31 Oct · home
Pick: Wuhan Three Towns II 36% · missed
L
Nantong Haimen Codion3–0Wuhan Three Towns II25 Oct · away
Pick: Nantong Haimen Codion 53% · hit
W
Wuhan Three Towns II2–0Tai'an Tiankuang17 Oct · home
Pick: Tai'an Tiankuang 35% · missed
W
Qingdao Red Lions0–2Wuhan Three Towns II6 Oct · away
Pick: Qingdao Red Lions 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

BIT and Wuhan Three Towns II meet in League Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Beijing Institute of Technology Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: BIT win 35.7%, draw 26.8%, Wuhan Three Towns II win 37.5%. The pick is Wuhan Three Towns II win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.2%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.