ScoreProb
Friendlies World Friendly International 2026

Chile U20 vs Mexico U20

Chile U20 Home · Elo 1,451
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mexico U20 Away · Elo 1,547
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mexico U20 win
Chile U20 win
28.9%
Draw
28.1%
Mexico U20 winPick
43.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

Chile U20 history11 matches
Mexico U20 history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Mexico U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mexico U20 are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,451. On rating alone Mexico U20 would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Mexico U20 score far more

    0.82 goals a game over 11 matches for Chile U20, against 2.13 over 15 for Mexico U20.

  • Mexico U20 concede fewer

    Chile U20 concede 1.55 a game, Mexico U20 1.20.

  • Mexico U20 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Chile U20 matches, against 67% for Mexico U20. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chile U20
Mexico U20@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.3
ELO
1546.8
11
ELO · Matches
15
1451.3
Current Team ELO
1546.8
1546.8
Current Opponent ELO
1451.3
-95.56
Current ELO Difference
95.56
0.37
Expected score
0.63
11
History Matches
15
-0.20
Residual Mean
0.19
43.06
Overperformance
58.03
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.37
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
3.00
0.60
Goals for per game
2.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
2.50
0.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.50
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
11
Matches
15
0.64
PPG
1.87
9.1%
Win rate
53.3%
36.4%
Draw rate
26.7%
54.5%
Loss rate
20.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
9.1%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
1.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
7
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
14.3%
Win rate
60.0%
57.1%
Draw rate
40.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
0.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.89
7
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.82
Goals for per game
2.13
63.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
63.6%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
71.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
71.4%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
11
History Matches
15
0.82
Goals Mean
2.13
0.83
Goals Std
1.02
63.6%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
9.1%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.20
90.9%
Conceding rate
53.3%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.80
85.7%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
11
History Matches
15
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.20
0.78
Conceded Std
1.28
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.7%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
0.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
11
History Matches
15
0.83
Result entropy
0.92
1.05
Goal Difference Std
1.73
16.58
Stability score
8.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
15
0
Lead Matches
6
—
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.89
3
Trailing Matches
4
33.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.20
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
159.9
Rest days
95.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.60
2
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
4
Long Rest History Matches
5
0.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
1.13
0.30
Portability PPG Range
2.25
76.92
Portability Score
30.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
11
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points Retention
ELO-95.56
PPG-1.23
GF-1.32
GA0.35
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.20
PPG-2.40
PPG-2.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.38
Failed-to-score rate36.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate28.6%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-1.32
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.36
Scored 2+ rate-0.58
Scored 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std-0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.38
Conceded 2+ rate14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.68
Stability score8.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.80
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-6
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.98
Portability PPG Range-1.95
Portability Score46.15
Rest days64.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.85
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.75
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.15
Current Team ELO-95.56
Current Opponent ELO95.56
Current ELO Difference-191.1
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.38
Overperformance-14.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.64

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chile U20

No earlier results with our pick yet

Mexico U20

L
Brazil U204–0Mexico U204 Oct · away
Pick: Brazil U20 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chile U20 and Mexico U20 meet in Friendlies on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Chile U20 win 28.9%, draw 28.1%, Mexico U20 win 43.1%. The pick is Mexico U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.