France U21 vs Italy U21
Match result probability Model pick: France U21 win
France U21 winPick
39.4%
Draw
22.5%
Italy U21 win
38.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.3%
No41.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.5%
Under 2.536.5%
How much we know
France U21 history11 matches
Italy U21 history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours France U21
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 17:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.
Why France U21 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,566 against 1,579. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
France U21 score more
2.82 goals a game over 11 matches for France U21, against 2.38 over 13 for Italy U21.
-
Italy U21 concede fewer
France U21 concede 1.09 a game, Italy U21 0.62.
-
France U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals
73% of France U21 matches, against 62% for Italy U21. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 8 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Italy U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1565.6
ELO
1578.6
11
ELO · Matches
13
1565.6
Current Team ELO
1578.6
1578.6
Current Opponent ELO
1565.6
-12.96
Current ELO Difference
12.96
0.48
Expected score
0.52
11
History Matches
13
0.29
Residual Mean
0.29
60.25
Overperformance
61.53
0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.28
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.40
3.00
Goals for per game
2.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
2.50
3.10
Goals for per game
2.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.70
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
3.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
2.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals 90
11
Matches
13
2.36
PPG
2.46
72.7%
Win rate
76.9%
18.2%
Draw rate
15.4%
9.1%
Loss rate
7.7%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
2.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals 100
5
Matches
7
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
57.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
0.0%
Loss rate
14.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
5
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.82
Goals for per game
2.38
81.8%
Scoring rate
100.0%
63.6%
BTTS rate
46.2%
3.20
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
11
History Matches
13
2.82
Goals Mean
2.38
2.12
Goals Std
1.50
81.8%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
63.6%
Scored 2+ rate
53.8%
54.5%
Scored 3+ rate
38.5%
3.20
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.09
Goals against per game
0.62
72.7%
Conceding rate
46.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.86
80.0%
Conceding rate
57.1%
—
Goals against per game
0.00
—
Conceding rate
0.0%
11
History Matches
13
1.09
Conceded Mean
0.62
0.90
Conceded Std
0.74
27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.4%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
53.8%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
53.8%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
53.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
11
History Matches
13
0.69
Result entropy
0.63
2.45
Goal Difference Std
1.72
30.86
Stability score
37.46
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
11
Eligible Matches
13
7
Lead Matches
6
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
1
50.0%
Non-loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
100.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
11
Halftime Coverage Matches
13
1.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.15
1.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.62
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
228.0
Rest days
158.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
5
Normal Rest History Matches
5
2.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.60
3
Long Rest History Matches
5
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.40
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
3.00
—
Win rate
100.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
3.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.67
Portability PPG Range
0.63
60.00
Portability Score
61.54
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
11
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-12.96
PPG-0.10
GF0.43
GA0.48
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate18.2%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.63
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate9.8%
Scored 3+ rate16.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Conceded 2+ rate11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.74
Stability score-6.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate-1.00
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.04
Portability Score-1.54
Rest days69.97
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO-12.96
Current Opponent ELO12.96
Current ELO Difference-25.93
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-1.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
France U21
W
France U217–1Switzerland U216 Oct · home
Pick: France U21 62% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Italy U21
W
Italy U216–2Poland U215 Oct · home
Pick: Italy U21 53% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
France U21 and Italy U21 meet in Friendlies on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: France U21 win 39.4%, draw 22.5%, Italy U21 win 38.1%. The pick is France U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.5%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.