Jordan vs Indonesia
Match result probability Model pick: Jordan win
Jordan winPick
48.9%
Draw
22.9%
Indonesia win
28.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.7%
No46.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%
How much we know
Jordan history26 matches
Indonesia history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Jordan
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Jordan are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,496 against 1,508. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Indonesia score more
1.35 goals a game over 26 matches for Jordan, against 1.75 over 16 for Indonesia.
-
Defences are close
Jordan concede 1.38 a game, Indonesia 1.31.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
58% of Jordan matches, against 56% for Indonesia. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 7 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Indonesia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1496.2
ELO
1508.2
26
ELO · Matches
16
1496.2
Current Team ELO
1508.2
1508.2
Current Opponent ELO
1496.2
-12.02
Current ELO Difference
12.02
0.48
Expected score
0.52
26
History Matches
16
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
49.21
Overperformance
52.67
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
2.80
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.90
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.34
Overall performance9 signals 90
26
Matches
16
1.23
PPG
1.63
30.8%
Win rate
50.0%
30.8%
Draw rate
12.5%
38.5%
Loss rate
37.5%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.06
Venue performance10 signals 100
12
Matches
5
1.42
PPG
0.80
33.3%
Win rate
20.0%
41.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.14
12
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.75
73.1%
Scoring rate
68.8%
53.8%
BTTS rate
25.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
83.3%
Scoring rate
60.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
26
History Matches
16
1.35
Goals Mean
1.75
1.07
Goals Std
1.85
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
42.3%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
19.2%
Scored 3+ rate
31.3%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.31
69.2%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.60
75.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
26
History Matches
16
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.24
Conceded Std
1.86
42.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
19.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
2.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
26
History Matches
16
0.99
Result entropy
0.89
1.65
Goal Difference Std
3.06
0.53
Stability score
11.31
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
25
Eligible Matches
16
8
Lead Matches
7
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
5
28.6%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
138.7
Rest days
98.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
12
Normal Rest History Matches
7
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
10
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
4
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.95
Portability PPG Std
0.38
2.67
Portability PPG Range
0.75
34.41
Portability Score
57.14
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
26
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-12.02
PPG-0.39
GF-0.40
GA0.07
PPG-2.50
PPG0.62
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.78
Scored 1+ rate4.3%
Scored 2+ rate4.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.10
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std-0.62
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches10
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-1.41
Stability score-10.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.02
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate28.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.58
Portability PPG Range1.92
Portability Score-22.74
Rest days40.46
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.83
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.90
Current Team ELO-12.02
Current Opponent ELO12.02
Current ELO Difference-24.03
Expected score-0.03
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-3.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Jordan and Indonesia meet in Friendlies on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Amman International Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Jordan win 48.9%, draw 22.9%, Indonesia win 28.3%. The pick is Jordan win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.3%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.