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II Liga - East Poland Round 16 2026

Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Chojniczanka Chojnice Home · Elo 1,548
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zawisza Bydgoszcz Away · Elo 1,679
Stadion Miejski Chojniczanka 1930, Chojnice Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz win
Chojniczanka Chojnice win
32.3%
Draw
24.9%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz winPick
42.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%

How much we know

Chojniczanka Chojnice history72 matches
Zawisza Bydgoszcz history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Zawisza Bydgoszcz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zawisza Bydgoszcz are rated 131 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,679 against 1,548. On rating alone Zawisza Bydgoszcz would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Zawisza Bydgoszcz score more

    1.64 goals a game over 72 matches for Chojniczanka Chojnice, against 2.02 over 65 for Zawisza Bydgoszcz.

  • Zawisza Bydgoszcz concede fewer

    Chojniczanka Chojnice concede 1.36 a game, Zawisza Bydgoszcz 0.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Chojniczanka Chojnice matches, against 49% for Zawisza Bydgoszcz. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Zawisza Bydgoszcz@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1548.2
ELO
1679.4
72
ELO · Matches
65
1548.2
Current Team ELO
1679.4
1679.4
Current Opponent ELO
1548.2
-131.2
Current ELO Difference
131.2
0.32
Expected score
0.68
72
History Matches
65
0.02
Residual Mean
0.16
51.91
Overperformance
61.92
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
1.90
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
65
1.56
PPG
2.25
43.1%
Win rate
70.8%
26.4%
Draw rate
12.3%
30.6%
Loss rate
16.9%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
49.2%
34.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.2%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
25
1.67
PPG
2.08
48.5%
Win rate
64.0%
21.2%
Draw rate
16.0%
30.3%
Loss rate
20.0%
75.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
33
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.64
Goals for per game
2.02
80.6%
Scoring rate
89.2%
61.1%
BTTS rate
43.1%
1.76
Goals for per game
2.00
84.8%
Scoring rate
88.0%
63.6%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
72
History Matches
65
1.64
Goals Mean
2.02
1.26
Goals Std
1.44
80.6%
Scored 1+ rate
89.2%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
56.9%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
0.80
77.8%
Conceding rate
52.3%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.04
75.8%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
72
History Matches
65
1.36
Conceded Mean
0.80
1.10
Conceded Std
0.93
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.5%
15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.6%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.8%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.8%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
65
0.98
Result entropy
0.73
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.75
2.00
Stability score
26.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
65
24
Lead Matches
35
70.8%
Lead Win Rate
94.3%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.96
21
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.85
Rest days
84.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.28
30
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.16
1.87
Portability PPG Range
0.39
45.86
Portability Score
75.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-131.2
PPG-0.69
GF-0.38
GA0.56
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.41
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.56
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate10.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches7
Result entropy0.25
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-24.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.39
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate3.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.20
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.43
Portability PPG Range1.47
Portability Score-30.02
Rest days0.69
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.20
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-131.2
Current Opponent ELO131.2
Current ELO Difference-262.4
Expected score-0.36
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-10.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chojniczanka Chojnice

W
Chojniczanka Chojnice1–0Avia Świdnik2 Nov · home
Pick: Chojniczanka Chojnice 41% · hit
L
Chojniczanka Chojnice2–3Legia Warszawa II24 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa II 44% · hit
W
Hutnik Kraków1–2Chojniczanka Chojnice17 Oct · away
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 53% · missed
L
Górnik Łęczna3–1Chojniczanka Chojnice4 Oct · away
Pick: Górnik Łęczna 45% · hit
D
Sokół Kleczew1–1Chojniczanka Chojnice29 Aug · away
Pick: Sokół Kleczew 43% · missed

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

W
Śląsk Wrocław II0–2Zawisza Bydgoszcz31 Oct · away
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 45% · hit
W
Zawisza Bydgoszcz4–2Świt Skolwin23 Oct · home
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 74% · hit
L
Sandecja Nowy Sącz4–3Zawisza Bydgoszcz18 Oct · away
Pick: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 43% · hit
L
Zawisza Bydgoszcz1–2Olimpia Grudziądz4 Oct · home
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 51% · missed
W
Zawisza Bydgoszcz4–1Legia Warszawa II29 Aug · home
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 56% · hit

About this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice and Zawisza Bydgoszcz meet in II Liga - East on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Miejski Chojniczanka 1930, Chojnice. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Chojniczanka Chojnice win 32.3%, draw 24.9%, Zawisza Bydgoszcz win 42.8%. The pick is Zawisza Bydgoszcz win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.2%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.