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II Liga - East Poland Round 16 2026

Górnik Łęczna vs Hutnik Kraków

Górnik Łęczna Home · Elo 1,429
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hutnik Kraków Away · Elo 1,524
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hutnik Kraków win
Górnik Łęczna win
23.3%
Draw
24.4%
Hutnik Kraków winPick
52.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Górnik Łęczna history67 matches
Hutnik Kraków history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.4%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Hutnik Kraków are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hutnik Kraków are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,429. On rating alone Hutnik Kraków would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Hutnik Kraków score more

    1.22 goals a game over 67 matches for Górnik Łęczna, against 1.51 over 72 for Hutnik Kraków.

  • Hutnik Kraków concede fewer

    Górnik Łęczna concede 1.72 a game, Hutnik Kraków 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Górnik Łęczna matches, against 53% for Hutnik Kraków. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Górnik Łęczna
Hutnik Kraków@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1429.4
ELO
1524.2
67
ELO · Matches
72
1429.4
Current Team ELO
1524.2
1524.2
Current Opponent ELO
1429.4
-94.77
Current ELO Difference
94.77
0.37
Expected score
0.63
67
History Matches
72
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
46.99
Overperformance
51.61
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
1.70
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
72
0.90
PPG
1.32
19.4%
Win rate
36.1%
31.3%
Draw rate
23.6%
49.3%
Loss rate
40.3%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
37.3%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
35
1.05
PPG
1.06
26.3%
Win rate
25.7%
26.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
47.4%
Loss rate
45.7%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
28.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
38
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.51
76.1%
Scoring rate
68.1%
61.2%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.18
Goals for per game
1.29
71.1%
Scoring rate
57.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
67
History Matches
72
1.22
Goals Mean
1.51
1.00
Goals Std
1.55
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
68.1%
34.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
7.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.6%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.72
Goals against per game
1.39
82.1%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.54
76.3%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
67
History Matches
72
1.72
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.14
Conceded Std
1.17
61.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
20.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
72
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
1.59
Goal Difference Std
2.05
6.19
Stability score
2.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
71
19
Lead Matches
22
42.1%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.53
Lead Points Retention
0.86
28
Trailing Matches
21
21.4%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.79
Rest days
82.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
33
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
31
Long Rest History Matches
27
0.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
2.20
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.60
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.07
Portability PPG Range
1.60
59.22
Portability Score
49.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-94.77
PPG-0.42
GF-0.29
GA0.33
PPG-0.80
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.55
Scored 1+ rate8.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.47
Stability score4.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.40
Lead Points Retention-0.34
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate2.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score10.02
Rest days1.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Current Team ELO-94.77
Current Opponent ELO94.77
Current ELO Difference-189.5
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Górnik Łęczna

W
Resovia Rzeszów0–2Górnik Łęczna6 Nov · away
Pick: Górnik Łęczna 39% · hit
W
Górnik Łęczna3–0Znicz Pruszków31 Oct · home
Pick: Górnik Łęczna 38% · hit
W
Górnik Łęczna1–0GKS Katowice27 Oct · home
Pick: GKS Katowice 42% · missed
W
Lechia Zielona Góra0–6Górnik Łęczna24 Oct · away
Pick: Lechia Zielona Góra 53% · missed
L
Górnik Łęczna1–2Stal Stalowa Wola17 Oct · home
Pick: Górnik Łęczna 41% · missed

Hutnik Kraków

W
Hutnik Kraków3–2Rekord Bielsko-Biała31 Oct · home
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 63% · hit
L
Hutnik Kraków1–2Olimpia Grudziądz24 Oct · home
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 55% · missed
L
Hutnik Kraków1–2Chojniczanka Chojnice17 Oct · home
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 53% · missed
W
Hutnik Kraków2–1Stal Stalowa Wola29 Aug · home
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Górnik Łęczna and Hutnik Kraków meet in II Liga - East on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Górnik Łęczna win 23.3%, draw 24.4%, Hutnik Kraków win 52.4%. The pick is Hutnik Kraków win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.