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II Liga - East Poland Round 16 2026

Śląsk Wrocław II vs Lechia Zielona Góra

Śląsk Wrocław II Home · Elo 1,530
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lechia Zielona Góra Away · Elo 1,593
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lechia Zielona Góra win
Śląsk Wrocław II win
35.6%
Draw
24.2%
Lechia Zielona Góra winPick
40.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.2%
No40.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%

How much we know

Śląsk Wrocław II history69 matches
Lechia Zielona Góra history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Lechia Zielona Góra are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lechia Zielona Góra are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,530. On rating alone Lechia Zielona Góra would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.91 goals a game over 69 matches for Śląsk Wrocław II, against 1.79 over 68 for Lechia Zielona Góra.

  • Lechia Zielona Góra concede fewer

    Śląsk Wrocław II concede 1.42 a game, Lechia Zielona Góra 0.99.

  • Śląsk Wrocław II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Śląsk Wrocław II matches, against 53% for Lechia Zielona Góra. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Śląsk Wrocław II
Lechia Zielona Góra@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.5
ELO
1592.8
69
ELO · Matches
68
1530.5
Current Team ELO
1592.8
1592.8
Current Opponent ELO
1530.5
-62.28
Current ELO Difference
62.28
0.41
Expected score
0.59
69
History Matches
68
0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
51.66
Overperformance
55.30
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.20
1.70
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.48
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
68
1.62
PPG
1.72
47.8%
Win rate
48.5%
18.8%
Draw rate
26.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
81.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
62.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
42.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
33
1.60
PPG
1.70
45.7%
Win rate
51.5%
22.9%
Draw rate
15.2%
31.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
62.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
35
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.91
Goals for per game
1.79
84.1%
Scoring rate
75.0%
60.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.55
82.9%
Scoring rate
69.7%
62.9%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
68
1.91
Goals Mean
1.79
1.45
Goals Std
1.75
84.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
55.1%
Scored 2+ rate
42.6%
30.4%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
1.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
0.99
72.5%
Conceding rate
63.2%
1.54
Goals against per game
1.12
77.1%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
68
1.42
Conceded Mean
0.99
1.28
Conceded Std
1.06
40.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.5%
17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
68
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.96
Goal Difference Std
2.24
5.93
Stability score
4.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
67
31
Lead Matches
25
61.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.0%
0.65
Lead Points Retention
0.92
12
Trailing Matches
13
41.7%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.77
Rest days
82.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
36
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
30
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.20
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.35
Portability PPG Range
1.12
50.16
Portability Score
56.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-62.28
PPG-0.10
GF0.12
GA0.43
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
PPG0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate12.4%
Scored 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate10.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score1.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.70
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.27
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate10.9%
Trailing Win Rate17.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-6.41
Rest days-0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.20
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-62.28
Current Opponent ELO62.28
Current ELO Difference-124.6
Expected score-0.18
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Śląsk Wrocław II

L
Świt Skolwin3–0Śląsk Wrocław II7 Nov · away
Pick: Śląsk Wrocław II 50% · missed
L
Śląsk Wrocław II0–2Zawisza Bydgoszcz31 Oct · home
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 45% · hit
L
Polonia Środa3–1Śląsk Wrocław II28 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Środa 40% · hit
L
Sokół Kleczew4–2Śląsk Wrocław II23 Oct · away
Pick: Śląsk Wrocław II 49% · missed
L
Śląsk Wrocław II1–2Avia Świdnik18 Oct · home
Pick: Śląsk Wrocław II 46% · missed

Lechia Zielona Góra

W
Lechia Zielona Góra2–1Stal Stalowa Wola7 Nov · home
Pick: Lechia Zielona Góra 49% · hit
W
Tychy 711–2Lechia Zielona Góra31 Oct · away
Pick: Tychy 71 46% · missed
L
Lechia Zielona Góra0–6Górnik Łęczna24 Oct · home
Pick: Lechia Zielona Góra 53% · missed
D
Podhale Nowy Targ0–0Lechia Zielona Góra18 Oct · away
Pick: Lechia Zielona Góra 41% · missed
W
Avia Świdnik1–3Lechia Zielona Góra29 Aug · away
Pick: Avia Świdnik 44% · missed

About this match

Śląsk Wrocław II and Lechia Zielona Góra meet in II Liga - East on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Śląsk Wrocław II win 35.6%, draw 24.2%, Lechia Zielona Góra win 40.2%. The pick is Lechia Zielona Góra win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.8%. Both teams to score: 59.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.