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II Liga - East Poland Round 16 2026

Podhale Nowy Targ vs Avia Świdnik

Podhale Nowy Targ Home · Elo 1,550
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Avia Świdnik Away · Elo 1,659
Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Nowy Targ Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Avia Świdnik win
Podhale Nowy Targ win
36.5%
Draw
26.7%
Avia Świdnik winPick
36.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.1%
No39.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%

How much we know

Podhale Nowy Targ history67 matches
Avia Świdnik history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Avia Świdnik are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Avia Świdnik are rated 109 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,659 against 1,550. On rating alone Avia Świdnik would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Avia Świdnik score more

    1.66 goals a game over 67 matches for Podhale Nowy Targ, against 2.43 over 60 for Avia Świdnik.

  • Defences are close

    Podhale Nowy Targ concede 1.16 a game, Avia Świdnik 1.27.

  • Avia Świdnik games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Podhale Nowy Targ matches, against 70% for Avia Świdnik. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Podhale Nowy Targ
Avia Świdnik@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1549.8
ELO
1658.7
67
ELO · Matches
60
1549.8
Current Team ELO
1658.7
1658.7
Current Opponent ELO
1549.8
-108.9
Current ELO Difference
108.9
0.35
Expected score
0.65
67
History Matches
60
0.03
Residual Mean
0.13
52.46
Overperformance
60.02
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.70
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
60
1.63
PPG
2.13
43.3%
Win rate
63.3%
32.8%
Draw rate
23.3%
23.9%
Loss rate
13.3%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
50.7%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
37.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
29
2.06
PPG
2.14
59.4%
Win rate
62.1%
28.1%
Draw rate
27.6%
12.5%
Loss rate
10.3%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
93.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.4%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
51.7%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
32
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.66
Goals for per game
2.43
80.6%
Scoring rate
98.3%
52.2%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.94
Goals for per game
2.34
96.9%
Scoring rate
96.6%
53.1%
BTTS rate
72.4%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
67
History Matches
60
1.66
Goals Mean
2.43
1.28
Goals Std
1.37
80.6%
Scored 1+ rate
98.3%
47.8%
Scored 2+ rate
70.0%
25.4%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
2.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.27
65.7%
Conceding rate
68.3%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.45
56.3%
Conceding rate
75.9%
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
67
History Matches
60
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.18
Conceded Std
1.20
32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.0%
10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
1.7%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
3.1%
Failed-to-score rate
3.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
1.7%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
3.1%
Failed-to-score rate
3.4%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
60
0.97
Result entropy
0.82
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.82
2.59
Stability score
18.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
59
31
Lead Matches
24
71.0%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.93
14
Trailing Matches
12
21.4%
Non-loss rate
58.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.37
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.97
31
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.97
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.70
52.98
Portability Score
65.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-108.9
PPG-0.51
GF-0.78
GA-0.10
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.08
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate17.7%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.78
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches7
Result entropy0.16
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-15.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.37
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.63
Portability Score-12.40
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Current Team ELO-108.9
Current Opponent ELO108.9
Current ELO Difference-217.8
Expected score-0.30
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Podhale Nowy Targ

D
Znicz Pruszków2–2Podhale Nowy Targ7 Nov · away
Pick: Znicz Pruszków 52% · missed
D
Podhale Nowy Targ2–2Świt Skolwin31 Oct · home
Pick: Podhale Nowy Targ 56% · missed
L
Sokół Kleczew2–1Podhale Nowy Targ28 Oct · away
Pick: Podhale Nowy Targ 45% · missed
D
Tychy 710–0Podhale Nowy Targ25 Oct · away
Pick: Tychy 71 57% · missed
D
Podhale Nowy Targ0–0Lechia Zielona Góra18 Oct · home
Pick: Lechia Zielona Góra 41% · missed

Avia Świdnik

L
Chojniczanka Chojnice1–0Avia Świdnik2 Nov · away
Pick: Chojniczanka Chojnice 41% · hit
L
Avia Świdnik0–2Znicz Pruszków25 Oct · home
Pick: Znicz Pruszków 41% · hit
W
Śląsk Wrocław II1–2Avia Świdnik18 Oct · away
Pick: Śląsk Wrocław II 46% · missed
L
Avia Świdnik1–3Lechia Zielona Góra29 Aug · home
Pick: Avia Świdnik 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Podhale Nowy Targ and Avia Świdnik meet in II Liga - East on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Nowy Targ. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Podhale Nowy Targ win 36.5%, draw 26.7%, Avia Świdnik win 36.8%. The pick is Avia Świdnik win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.6%. Both teams to score: 60.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.