ScoreProb
Premiership Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Cliftonville FC vs Larne

Cliftonville FC Home · Elo 1,553
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Larne Away · Elo 1,668
Solitude, Belfast Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cliftonville FC win
Cliftonville FC winPick
47.4%
Draw
25.7%
Larne win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%

How much we know

Cliftonville FC history80 matches
Larne history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cliftonville FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Larne are rated 116 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,668 against 1,553. On rating alone Larne would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.65 goals a game over 80 matches for Cliftonville FC, against 1.50 over 82 for Larne.

  • Larne concede fewer

    Cliftonville FC concede 1.29 a game, Larne 0.91.

  • Cliftonville FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Cliftonville FC matches, against 43% for Larne. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cliftonville FC
Larne
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1552.5
ELO
1668.4
80
ELO · Matches
82
1552.5
Current Team ELO
1668.4
1668.4
Current Opponent ELO
1552.5
-115.9
Current ELO Difference
115.9
0.34
Expected score
0.66
80
History Matches
82
0.04
Residual Mean
0.09
53.03
Overperformance
57.12
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.20
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.33
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.72
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
82
1.65
PPG
1.80
47.5%
Win rate
48.8%
22.5%
Draw rate
34.1%
30.0%
Loss rate
17.1%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
61.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.7%
33.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.5%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
47
1.77
PPG
1.85
51.2%
Win rate
51.1%
23.3%
Draw rate
31.9%
25.6%
Loss rate
17.0%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.3%
67.4%
Over 2.5 rate
38.3%
37.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.0%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
43
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.65
Goals for per game
1.50
78.8%
Scoring rate
73.2%
52.5%
BTTS rate
46.3%
1.88
Goals for per game
1.47
83.7%
Scoring rate
74.5%
55.8%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
0.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
80
History Matches
82
1.65
Goals Mean
1.50
1.30
Goals Std
1.45
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
73.2%
52.5%
Scored 2+ rate
47.6%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
0.91
66.3%
Conceding rate
59.8%
1.30
Goals against per game
0.94
65.1%
Conceding rate
63.8%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
0.0%
80
History Matches
82
1.29
Conceded Mean
0.91
1.25
Conceded Std
1.04
42.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.5%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.3%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
0.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.2%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.2%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
82
0.96
Result entropy
0.93
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.81
4.39
Stability score
7.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
81
27
Lead Matches
26
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.90
21
Trailing Matches
19
33.3%
Non-loss rate
47.4%
23.8%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
83.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
54
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
19
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
Current Competition Matches
1
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
10
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.35
53.87
Portability Score
54.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-115.9
PPG-0.15
GF0.15
GA0.37
PPG1.00
PPG-0.08
PPG1.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate5.6%
Scored 2+ rate4.9%
Scored 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.41
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate23.0%
Conceded 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-2.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.28
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate8.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score-0.33
Rest days-6.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO-115.9
Current Opponent ELO115.9
Current ELO Difference-231.7
Expected score-0.32
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cliftonville FC

W
Cliftonville FC7–1Carrick Rangers31 Oct · home
Pick: Cliftonville FC 53% · hit
W
Dungannon Swifts1–3Cliftonville FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Cliftonville FC 39% · hit
W
Portadown0–2Cliftonville FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Cliftonville FC 45% · hit
L
Cliftonville FC1–2Portadown17 Oct · home
Pick: Cliftonville FC 59% · missed
L
Cliftonville FC0–2Dungannon Swifts29 Aug · home
Pick: Cliftonville FC 48% · missed

Larne

W
Larne1–0Portadown30 Oct · home
Pick: Larne 64% · hit
D
Larne1–1Limavady United27 Oct · home
Pick: Larne 56% · missed
W
Bangor1–2Larne24 Oct · away
Pick: Larne 52% · hit
L
Larne1–2Linfield20 Oct · home
Pick: Larne 45% · missed
L
Larne2–3Coleraine FC16 Oct · home
Pick: Coleraine FC 35% · hit

About this match

Cliftonville FC and Larne meet in Premiership on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Solitude, Belfast. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Cliftonville FC win 47.4%, draw 25.7%, Larne win 26.9%. The pick is Cliftonville FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.