ScoreProb
Log in
Segunda División Chile Relegation Group - 12 2026

Colina vs Provincial Ovalle

Colina Home · Elo 1,455
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Provincial Ovalle Away · Elo 1,431
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Colina win
Colina winPick
48.1%
Draw
28.2%
Provincial Ovalle win
23.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.6%
No51.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.6%
Under 2.551.4%

How much we know

Colina history13 matches
Provincial Ovalle history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Colina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,455 against 1,431. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Colina score more

    1.23 goals a game over 13 matches for Colina, against 0.87 over 31 for Provincial Ovalle.

  • Defences are close

    Colina concede 1.23 a game, Provincial Ovalle 1.26.

  • Colina games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Colina matches, against 29% for Provincial Ovalle. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Colina
Provincial Ovalle@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1454.9
ELO
1431.0
13
ELO · Matches
31
1454.9
Current Team ELO
1431.0
1431.0
Current Opponent ELO
1454.9
23.94
Current ELO Difference
-23.94
0.53
Expected score
0.47
13
History Matches
31
-0.18
Residual Mean
-0.11
42.84
Overperformance
43.04
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.30
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
13
Matches
31
0.92
PPG
1.06
23.1%
Win rate
29.0%
23.1%
Draw rate
19.4%
53.8%
Loss rate
51.6%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
58.1%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
29.0%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
12.9%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
16
1.17
PPG
0.88
33.3%
Win rate
25.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
12.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
62.5%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
31.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
6
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
0.87
76.9%
Scoring rate
54.8%
61.5%
BTTS rate
35.5%
1.83
Goals for per game
0.75
83.3%
Scoring rate
37.5%
66.7%
BTTS rate
25.0%
1.23
Goals for per game
0.77
76.9%
Scoring rate
53.8%
61.5%
BTTS rate
53.8%
13
History Matches
31
1.23
Goals Mean
0.87
1.25
Goals Std
0.91
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
54.8%
23.1%
Scored 2+ rate
29.0%
7.7%
Scored 3+ rate
3.2%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.26
84.6%
Conceding rate
71.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.19
83.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.69
84.6%
Conceding rate
92.3%
13
History Matches
31
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.26
0.70
Conceded Std
1.32
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
13
History Matches
31
0.92
Result entropy
0.93
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.54
8.06
Stability score
7.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
13
Eligible Matches
31
3
Lead Matches
8
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.75
4
Trailing Matches
11
25.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
89.21
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
4
Normal Rest History Matches
8
0.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
8
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
13
Matches
13
0.92
PPG
0.54
23.1%
Win rate
7.7%
23.1%
Draw rate
30.8%
53.8%
Loss rate
61.5%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
13
Current Competition Matches
13
0.92
Current Competition PPG
0.54
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.92
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.45
—
Portability PPG Range
0.91
—
Portability Score
52.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
13
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO23.94
PPG-0.14
GF0.36
GA-0.03
PPG0.38
PPG0.29
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.46
History Matches-18
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate22.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.60
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.62
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.79
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score0.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.92
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days5.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO23.94
Current Opponent ELO-23.94
Current ELO Difference47.87
Expected score0.07
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Colina

D
Colina1–1Santiago Morning24 Oct · home
Pick: Colina 44% · missed
W
General Velásquez2–3Colina4 Oct · away
Pick: General Velásquez 44% · missed
D
Colina0–0Lota Schwager29 Aug · home
Pick: Colina 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Provincial Ovalle

L
Provincial Ovalle1–2General Velásquez24 Oct · home
Pick: General Velásquez 37% · hit
D
Santiago Morning0–0Provincial Ovalle30 Aug · away
Pick: Santiago Morning 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Colina and Provincial Ovalle meet in Segunda División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Colina win 48.1%, draw 28.2%, Provincial Ovalle win 23.7%. The pick is Colina win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.6%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.