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Segunda División Chile Promotion Group - 12 2026

Concón National vs Santiago City

Concón National Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Santiago City Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Concón National win
Concón National winPick
45.4%
Draw
26.4%
Santiago City win
28.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%

How much we know

Concón National history36 matches
Santiago City history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Concón National are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,501 against 1,487. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.56 goals a game over 36 matches for Concón National, against 1.49 over 37 for Santiago City.

  • Concón National concede fewer

    Concón National concede 1.28 a game, Santiago City 2.11.

  • Santiago City games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Concón National matches, against 65% for Santiago City. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Concón National
Santiago City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.6
ELO
1486.8
36
ELO · Matches
37
1500.6
Current Team ELO
1486.8
1486.8
Current Opponent ELO
1500.6
13.79
Current ELO Difference
-13.79
0.52
Expected score
0.48
36
History Matches
37
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.07
Overperformance
48.80
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
37
1.42
PPG
1.16
41.7%
Win rate
29.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
27.0%
41.7%
Loss rate
43.2%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.9%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
19
1.06
PPG
1.11
27.8%
Win rate
26.3%
22.2%
Draw rate
31.6%
50.0%
Loss rate
42.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
52.6%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
18
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.49
66.7%
Scoring rate
78.4%
41.7%
BTTS rate
70.3%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.42
55.6%
Scoring rate
73.7%
38.9%
BTTS rate
63.2%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.43
78.6%
Scoring rate
92.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
71.4%
36
History Matches
37
1.56
Goals Mean
1.49
1.48
Goals Std
1.20
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.4%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
43.2%
27.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.9%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
2.11
72.2%
Conceding rate
89.2%
1.28
Goals against per game
2.42
77.8%
Conceding rate
84.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.43
71.4%
Conceding rate
71.4%
36
History Matches
37
1.28
Conceded Mean
2.11
1.12
Conceded Std
1.50
36.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.8%
13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.4%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
2.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
37
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
2.06
Goal Difference Std
1.67
6.41
Stability score
1.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
37
13
Lead Matches
10
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.63
12
Trailing Matches
15
25.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.19
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.08
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.80
26
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
14
Matches
14
1.50
PPG
1.71
42.9%
Win rate
42.9%
21.4%
Draw rate
42.9%
35.7%
Loss rate
14.3%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
14
Current Competition Matches
14
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.71
0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.14
Portability PPG Range
0.89
88.00
Portability Score
52.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO13.79
PPG0.25
GF0.07
GA-0.83
PPG-0.21
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate11.7%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate18.1%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate1.2%
Scored 3+ rate8.9%
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.58
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.83
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.79
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.40
Stability score4.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate34.6%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.29
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-0.75
Portability Score35.04
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.76
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO13.79
Current Opponent ELO-13.79
Current ELO Difference27.58
Expected score0.04
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Concón National

D
Linares Unido1–1Concón National7 Nov · away
Pick: Linares Unido 48% · missed
D
Concón National0–0Municipal Salamanca31 Oct · home
Pick: Concón National 38% · missed
L
Trasandino3–1Concón National24 Oct · away
Pick: Trasandino 41% · hit
W
Concón National3–1Linares Unido29 Aug · home
Pick: Concón National 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Santiago City

D
Municipal Salamanca2–2Santiago City25 Oct · away
Pick: Municipal Salamanca 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Concón National and Santiago City meet in Segunda División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Concón National win 45.4%, draw 26.4%, Santiago City win 28.3%. The pick is Concón National win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.4%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.