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Segunda División Chile Relegation Group - 12 2026

Santiago Morning vs Deportes Rengo

Santiago Morning Home · Elo 1,461
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportes Rengo Away · Elo 1,454
Estadio Municipal de La Pintana, Santiago de Chile Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Santiago Morning win
Santiago Morning winPick
45.5%
Draw
30.4%
Deportes Rengo win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.4%
No55.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.8%
Under 2.558.2%

How much we know

Santiago Morning history47 matches
Deportes Rengo history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Santiago Morning are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,461 against 1,454. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Deportes Rengo score more

    0.81 goals a game over 47 matches for Santiago Morning, against 0.94 over 33 for Deportes Rengo.

  • Santiago Morning concede fewer

    Santiago Morning concede 1.19 a game, Deportes Rengo 1.55.

  • Deportes Rengo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of Santiago Morning matches, against 45% for Deportes Rengo. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Santiago Morning
Deportes Rengo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.7
ELO
1454.0
47
ELO · Matches
33
1460.7
Current Team ELO
1454.0
1454.0
Current Opponent ELO
1460.7
6.64
Current ELO Difference
-6.64
0.51
Expected score
0.49
47
History Matches
33
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.07
46.72
Overperformance
45.59
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
0.90
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
33
1.11
PPG
1.06
25.5%
Win rate
30.3%
34.0%
Draw rate
15.2%
40.4%
Loss rate
54.5%
55.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
36.2%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
19.1%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
17
1.14
PPG
1.00
27.3%
Win rate
29.4%
31.8%
Draw rate
11.8%
40.9%
Loss rate
58.8%
45.5%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
27.3%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
4.5%
Over 3.5 rate
11.8%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
22
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.81
Goals for per game
0.94
55.3%
Scoring rate
69.7%
40.4%
BTTS rate
51.5%
0.68
Goals for per game
0.71
45.5%
Scoring rate
64.7%
31.8%
BTTS rate
41.2%
0.93
Goals for per game
0.93
66.7%
Scoring rate
64.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
47
History Matches
33
0.81
Goals Mean
0.94
0.89
Goals Std
0.85
55.3%
Scored 1+ rate
69.7%
19.1%
Scored 2+ rate
15.2%
6.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
0.68
Venue Goals Mean
0.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.55
68.1%
Conceding rate
78.8%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.53
68.2%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.07
86.7%
Conceding rate
71.4%
47
History Matches
33
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.18
Conceded Std
1.35
29.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.4%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
44.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
54.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
44.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
54.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
33
0.98
Result entropy
0.89
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.67
1.55
Stability score
10.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
33
12
Lead Matches
8
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.71
7
Trailing Matches
14
14.3%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
24
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
14
1.00
PPG
1.29
20.0%
Win rate
35.7%
40.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
40.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
15
Current Competition Matches
14
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.29
-0.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.14
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.39
61.59
Portability Score
71.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO6.64
PPG0.05
GF-0.13
GA-0.35
PPG-0.29
PPG0.14
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Failed-to-score rate14.4%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate19.3%
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate4.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches14
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-9.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate7.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.12
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.36
Portability Score-10.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO6.64
Current Opponent ELO-6.64
Current ELO Difference13.29
Expected score0.02
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Santiago Morning

L
Santiago Morning1–4Lota Schwager31 Oct · home
Pick: Santiago Morning 41% · missed
D
Colina1–1Santiago Morning24 Oct · away
Pick: Colina 44% · missed
D
Santiago Morning0–0Provincial Ovalle30 Aug · home
Pick: Santiago Morning 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Deportes Rengo

D
Deportes Rengo3–3Real San Joaquín7 Nov · home
Pick: Deportes Rengo 41% · missed
L
General Velásquez1–0Deportes Rengo31 Oct · away
Pick: General Velásquez 47% · hit
L
Lota Schwager5–1Deportes Rengo24 Oct · away
Pick: Lota Schwager 40% · hit
W
Real San Joaquín2–5Deportes Rengo31 Aug · away
Pick: Real San Joaquín 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Santiago Morning and Deportes Rengo meet in Segunda División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana, Santiago de Chile. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Santiago Morning win 45.5%, draw 30.4%, Deportes Rengo win 24.1%. The pick is Santiago Morning win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.8%. Both teams to score: 44.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.