ScoreProb
Log in
Segunda División Chile Promotion Group - 12 2026

Provincial Osorno vs Municipal Salamanca

Provincial Osorno Home · Elo 1,552
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Municipal Salamanca Away · Elo 1,551
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Provincial Osorno win
Provincial Osorno winPick
43.7%
Draw
30.0%
Municipal Salamanca win
26.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.8%
Under 2.557.2%

How much we know

Provincial Osorno history36 matches
Municipal Salamanca history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Provincial Osorno are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,552 against 1,551. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Provincial Osorno score more

    1.64 goals a game over 36 matches for Provincial Osorno, against 1.23 over 35 for Municipal Salamanca.

  • Municipal Salamanca concede fewer

    Provincial Osorno concede 1.11 a game, Municipal Salamanca 0.83.

  • Provincial Osorno games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Provincial Osorno matches, against 34% for Municipal Salamanca. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Provincial Osorno
Municipal Salamanca@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.7
ELO
1550.5
36
ELO · Matches
35
1551.7
Current Team ELO
1550.5
1550.5
Current Opponent ELO
1551.7
1.21
Current ELO Difference
-1.21
0.50
Expected score
0.50
36
History Matches
35
0.08
Residual Mean
0.08
54.87
Overperformance
54.98
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
0.90
Goals for per game
0.90
0.40
Goals against per game
0.50
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
35
1.67
PPG
1.71
44.4%
Win rate
45.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
34.3%
22.2%
Loss rate
20.0%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
34.3%
36.1%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
16
2.05
PPG
1.69
57.9%
Win rate
50.0%
31.6%
Draw rate
18.8%
10.5%
Loss rate
31.3%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
19
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.64
Goals for per game
1.23
77.8%
Scoring rate
74.3%
52.8%
BTTS rate
40.0%
2.11
Goals for per game
1.25
89.5%
Scoring rate
81.3%
52.6%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.85
69.2%
Scoring rate
61.5%
23.1%
BTTS rate
38.5%
36
History Matches
35
1.64
Goals Mean
1.23
1.40
Goals Std
0.93
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
47.2%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
8.6%
2.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
0.83
66.7%
Conceding rate
48.6%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.19
57.9%
Conceding rate
68.8%
0.46
Goals against per game
0.54
30.8%
Conceding rate
46.2%
36
History Matches
35
1.11
Conceded Mean
0.83
1.02
Conceded Std
1.03
30.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.9%
13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
51.4%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
69.2%
Clean-sheet rate
53.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
51.4%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
51.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
35
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.34
3.44
Stability score
4.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
36
Eligible Matches
34
12
Lead Matches
15
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.73
6
Trailing Matches
7
33.3%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
90.04
Rest days
84.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
8
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.22
27
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
13
Matches
13
1.85
PPG
1.69
46.2%
Win rate
38.5%
46.2%
Draw rate
53.8%
7.7%
Loss rate
7.7%
30.8%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
23.1%
Over 2.5 rate
15.4%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.91
13
Current Competition Matches
13
1.85
Current Competition PPG
1.69
0.54
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.31
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.28
Portability PPG Range
0.03
78.07
Portability Score
96.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO1.21
PPG-0.05
GF0.41
GA0.28
PPG0.15
PPG0.37
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.47
Scored 1+ rate3.5%
Scored 2+ rate7.2%
Scored 3+ rate16.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate2.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score-1.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.15
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.23
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-18.55
Rest days5.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO1.21
Current Opponent ELO-1.21
Current ELO Difference2.42
Expected score0.00
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Provincial Osorno

W
Provincial Osorno1–0Linares Unido24 Oct · home
Pick: Provincial Osorno 43% · hit
L
Colchagua2–0Provincial Osorno4 Oct · away
Pick: Provincial Osorno 36% · missed
D
Provincial Osorno2–2Trasandino29 Aug · home
Pick: Provincial Osorno 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Municipal Salamanca

D
Concón National0–0Municipal Salamanca31 Oct · away
Pick: Concón National 38% · missed
D
Municipal Salamanca2–2Santiago City25 Oct · home
Pick: Municipal Salamanca 52% · missed
W
Municipal Salamanca2–0Linares Unido4 Oct · home
Pick: Municipal Salamanca 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Provincial Osorno and Municipal Salamanca meet in Segunda División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Provincial Osorno win 43.7%, draw 30.0%, Municipal Salamanca win 26.3%. The pick is Provincial Osorno win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.8%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.