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Primera Nacional Argentina Round 16 2026

Colon Santa Fe vs Midland

Colon Santa Fe Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Midland Away · Elo 1,574
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Colon Santa Fe win
33.1%
DrawPick
38.4%
Midland win
28.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes36.8%
No63.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.528.5%
Under 2.571.5%

How much we know

Colon Santa Fe history50 matches
Midland history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Midland are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,574 against 1,499. On rating alone Midland would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Midland score more

    0.92 goals a game over 50 matches for Colon Santa Fe, against 1.18 over 60 for Midland.

  • Midland concede fewer

    Colon Santa Fe concede 1.02 a game, Midland 0.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    28% of Colon Santa Fe matches, against 25% for Midland. The model puts this match at 28% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Colon Santa Fe
Midland@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.5
ELO
1574.3
50
ELO · Matches
60
1498.5
Current Team ELO
1574.3
1574.3
Current Opponent ELO
1498.5
-75.77
Current ELO Difference
75.77
0.39
Expected score
0.61
50
History Matches
60
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
49.20
Overperformance
53.97
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.70
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.40
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
60
1.24
PPG
1.75
32.0%
Win rate
46.7%
28.0%
Draw rate
35.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
18.3%
58.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
28.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
6.7%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
32
1.55
PPG
1.31
40.9%
Win rate
28.1%
31.8%
Draw rate
46.9%
27.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
36.4%
Over 1.5 rate
46.9%
18.2%
Over 2.5 rate
21.9%
9.1%
Over 3.5 rate
9.4%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.01
22
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.92
Goals for per game
1.18
56.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
34.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
0.91
Goals for per game
0.88
50.0%
Scoring rate
56.3%
18.2%
BTTS rate
40.6%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.04
66.7%
Scoring rate
73.9%
42.9%
BTTS rate
43.5%
50
History Matches
60
0.92
Goals Mean
1.18
1.07
Goals Std
1.06
56.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
22.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
0.91
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
0.53
64.0%
Conceding rate
46.7%
0.55
Goals against per game
0.69
45.5%
Conceding rate
59.4%
0.86
Goals against per game
0.74
61.9%
Conceding rate
60.9%
50
History Matches
60
1.02
Conceded Mean
0.53
0.99
Conceded Std
0.62
28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
6.7%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.55
Venue Conceded Mean
0.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
60
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.24
1.01
Stability score
5.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
60
12
Lead Matches
21
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.89
14
Trailing Matches
6
14.3%
Non-loss rate
83.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.20
0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.10
Rest days
83.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
28
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
23
1.52
PPG
1.48
38.1%
Win rate
39.1%
38.1%
Draw rate
30.4%
23.8%
Loss rate
30.4%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
60.9%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
21.7%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
4.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
21
Current Competition Matches
23
1.52
Current Competition PPG
1.48
0.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.30
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.49
Portability PPG Range
0.46
67.20
Portability Score
72.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-75.77
PPG-0.51
GF-0.26
GA0.49
PPG0.05
PPG0.23
PPG0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate10.7%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.96
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.49
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate8.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-4.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.00
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.69
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.08
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score-5.26
Rest days1.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-75.77
Current Opponent ELO75.77
Current ELO Difference-151.5
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Colon Santa Fe

W
Ciudad de Bolívar0–2Colon Santa Fe25 Oct · away
Pick: Ciudad de Bolívar 44% · missed
D
Colon Santa Fe2–2Almirante Brown17 Oct · home
Pick: Colon Santa Fe 44% · missed
L
Racing Cordoba1–0Colon Santa Fe30 Aug · away
Pick: Racing Cordoba 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Midland

W
Midland3–0Gimnasia Y Tiro25 Oct · home
Pick: Midland 46% · hit
D
Agropecuario0–0Midland4 Oct · away
Pick: Midland 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Colon Santa Fe and Midland meet in Primera Nacional on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Colon Santa Fe win 33.1%, draw 38.4%, Midland win 28.5%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 28.5%. Both teams to score: 36.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.