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Primera Nacional Argentina Round 16 2026

Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu

Deportivo Madryn Home · Elo 1,580
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportivo Maipu Away · Elo 1,525
Estadio Abel Sastre, Puerto Madryn Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo Madryn win
Deportivo Madryn winPick
47.4%
Draw
30.7%
Deportivo Maipu win
21.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%
No53.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.0%
Under 2.558.0%

How much we know

Deportivo Madryn history64 matches
Deportivo Maipu history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 22:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Deportivo Madryn are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Deportivo Madryn are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,580 against 1,525. On rating alone Deportivo Madryn would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Deportivo Madryn score more

    1.31 goals a game over 64 matches for Deportivo Madryn, against 1.11 over 61 for Deportivo Maipu.

  • Defences are close

    Deportivo Madryn concede 0.88 a game, Deportivo Maipu 0.97.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Deportivo Madryn matches, against 36% for Deportivo Maipu. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Maipu@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.3
ELO
1525.0
64
ELO · Matches
61
1580.3
Current Team ELO
1525.0
1525.0
Current Opponent ELO
1580.3
55.29
Current ELO Difference
-55.29
0.58
Expected score
0.42
64
History Matches
61
0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
54.83
Overperformance
51.45
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.70
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
61
1.72
PPG
1.39
45.3%
Win rate
37.7%
35.9%
Draw rate
26.2%
18.8%
Loss rate
36.1%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
59.0%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
36.1%
20.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
31
2.27
PPG
1.03
66.7%
Win rate
25.8%
27.3%
Draw rate
25.8%
6.1%
Loss rate
48.4%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
42.4%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
33
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.11
73.4%
Scoring rate
65.6%
51.6%
BTTS rate
44.3%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.00
90.9%
Scoring rate
61.3%
54.5%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.31
72.0%
Scoring rate
65.4%
52.0%
BTTS rate
46.2%
64
History Matches
61
1.31
Goals Mean
1.11
1.04
Goals Std
1.13
73.4%
Scored 1+ rate
65.6%
42.2%
Scored 2+ rate
27.9%
14.1%
Scored 3+ rate
13.1%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.88
Goals against per game
0.97
65.6%
Conceding rate
70.5%
0.64
Goals against per game
1.19
57.6%
Conceding rate
77.4%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.04
64.0%
Conceding rate
69.2%
64
History Matches
61
0.88
Conceded Mean
0.97
0.76
Conceded Std
0.79
20.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.0%
1.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
42.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
42.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
61
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.22
Goal Difference Std
1.41
5.30
Stability score
1.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
61
23
Lead Matches
18
87.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.76
9
Trailing Matches
15
66.7%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.00
Rest days
83.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
31
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
26
1.72
PPG
1.46
44.0%
Win rate
42.3%
40.0%
Draw rate
19.2%
16.0%
Loss rate
38.5%
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.7%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
25
Current Competition Matches
26
1.72
Current Competition PPG
1.46
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.27
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.09
Portability PPG Range
0.13
91.67
Portability Score
88.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO55.29
PPG0.33
GF0.20
GA-0.09
PPG0.26
PPG1.24
PPG0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate14.3%
Scored 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score4.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate20.3%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate53.3%
Trailing Win Rate15.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.04
Portability Score3.04
Rest days-2.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO55.29
Current Opponent ELO-55.29
Current ELO Difference110.6
Expected score0.16
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportivo Madryn

W
Deportivo Madryn4–1San Telmo24 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Madryn 61% · hit
D
Acassuso0–0Deportivo Madryn17 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Madryn 40% · missed
L
Almirante Brown1–0Deportivo Madryn30 Aug · away
Pick: Deportivo Madryn 37% · missed
W
Deportivo Madryn2–0Godoy Cruz25 Aug · home
Pick: Deportivo Madryn 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Deportivo Maipu

W
Deportivo Maipu3–1Club Atlético Güemes25 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Maipu 60% · hit
W
Nueva Chicago0–1Deportivo Maipu5 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Maipu 39% · hit
L
Colegiales1–0Deportivo Maipu29 Aug · away
Pick: Colegiales 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Deportivo Madryn and Deportivo Maipu meet in Primera Nacional on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Abel Sastre, Puerto Madryn. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Deportivo Madryn win 47.4%, draw 30.7%, Deportivo Maipu win 21.9%. The pick is Deportivo Madryn win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.0%. Both teams to score: 46.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.