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Primera Nacional Argentina Round 16 2026

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almirante Brown

Gimnasia Jujuy Home · Elo 1,557
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Almirante Brown Away · Elo 1,511
Estadio 23 de Agosto, Jujuy Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gimnasia Jujuy win
Gimnasia Jujuy winPick
47.0%
Draw
30.6%
Almirante Brown win
22.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.5%
No55.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.9%
Under 2.564.1%

How much we know

Gimnasia Jujuy history63 matches
Almirante Brown history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Gimnasia Jujuy are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gimnasia Jujuy are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,557 against 1,511. On rating alone Gimnasia Jujuy would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Gimnasia Jujuy score more

    1.24 goals a game over 63 matches for Gimnasia Jujuy, against 0.85 over 53 for Almirante Brown.

  • Defences are close

    Gimnasia Jujuy concede 0.84 a game, Almirante Brown 0.85.

  • Gimnasia Jujuy games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Gimnasia Jujuy matches, against 26% for Almirante Brown. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gimnasia Jujuy
Almirante Brown@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1556.5
ELO
1511.0
63
ELO · Matches
53
1556.5
Current Team ELO
1511.0
1511.0
Current Opponent ELO
1556.5
45.53
Current ELO Difference
-45.53
0.57
Expected score
0.43
63
History Matches
53
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.34
Overperformance
50.97
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.10
1.60
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
0.50
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
53
1.67
PPG
1.30
44.4%
Win rate
32.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
34.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
34.0%
61.9%
Over 1.5 rate
54.7%
34.9%
Over 2.5 rate
26.4%
15.9%
Over 3.5 rate
9.4%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
26
2.09
PPG
0.88
59.4%
Win rate
19.2%
31.3%
Draw rate
30.8%
9.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
31.3%
Over 2.5 rate
34.6%
15.6%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
32
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
0.85
69.8%
Scoring rate
62.3%
41.3%
BTTS rate
39.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.77
78.1%
Scoring rate
61.5%
37.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.56
Goals for per game
0.83
80.0%
Scoring rate
58.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
29.2%
63
History Matches
53
1.24
Goals Mean
0.85
1.18
Goals Std
0.81
69.8%
Scored 1+ rate
62.3%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
18.9%
9.5%
Scored 3+ rate
3.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.84
Goals against per game
0.85
57.1%
Conceding rate
56.6%
0.59
Goals against per game
1.15
46.9%
Conceding rate
73.1%
1.16
Goals against per game
0.67
76.0%
Conceding rate
45.8%
63
History Matches
53
0.84
Conceded Mean
0.85
0.89
Conceded Std
0.90
20.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.6%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.7%
0.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
54.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.18
3.44
Stability score
0.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
53
16
Lead Matches
13
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
46.2%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.54
13
Trailing Matches
8
53.8%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.28
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.19
Rest days
84.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
37
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
25
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.72
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
24
1.80
PPG
1.46
52.0%
Win rate
37.5%
24.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
24.0%
Loss rate
29.2%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
45.8%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.8%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
25
Current Competition Matches
24
1.80
Current Competition PPG
1.46
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.17
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.29
85.37
Portability Score
77.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO45.53
PPG0.36
GF0.39
GA-0.01
PPG0.34
PPG1.21
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate26.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate7.6%
Scored 2+ rate17.6%
Scored 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.38
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score3.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.49
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate41.3%
Lead Points Retention0.38
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate41.3%
Trailing Win Rate15.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.34
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.23
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score7.60
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO45.53
Current Opponent ELO-45.53
Current ELO Difference91.06
Expected score0.13
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gimnasia Jujuy

L
Gimnasia Jujuy1–2Atlanta25 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnasia Jujuy 47% · missed
D
Gimnasia Jujuy2–2San Martin Tucuman28 Sep · home
Pick: Gimnasia Jujuy 50% · missed
D
Gimnasia Jujuy1–1Agropecuario1 Sep · home
Pick: Gimnasia Jujuy 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Almirante Brown

W
Almirante Brown1–0Deportivo Moron25 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Moron 38% · missed
D
Colon Santa Fe2–2Almirante Brown17 Oct · away
Pick: Colon Santa Fe 44% · missed
L
San Telmo3–2Almirante Brown4 Oct · away
Pick: San Telmo 37% · hit
W
Almirante Brown1–0Deportivo Madryn30 Aug · home
Pick: Deportivo Madryn 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gimnasia Jujuy and Almirante Brown meet in Primera Nacional on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio 23 de Agosto, Jujuy. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Gimnasia Jujuy win 47.0%, draw 30.6%, Almirante Brown win 22.4%. The pick is Gimnasia Jujuy win. Over 2.5 goals: 35.9%. Both teams to score: 44.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.