ScoreProb
Log in
Primera Nacional Argentina Round 16 2026

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes

Atlanta Home · Elo 1,545
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
CA Estudiantes Away · Elo 1,524
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlanta win
Atlanta winPick
39.1%
Draw
33.3%
CA Estudiantes win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.5%
No58.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.8%
Under 2.563.2%

How much we know

Atlanta history60 matches
CA Estudiantes history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Atlanta are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,545 against 1,524. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Atlanta score more

    1.05 goals a game over 60 matches for Atlanta, against 0.93 over 59 for CA Estudiantes.

  • CA Estudiantes concede fewer

    Atlanta concede 0.87 a game, CA Estudiantes 0.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of Atlanta matches, against 25% for CA Estudiantes. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlanta
CA Estudiantes@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.3
ELO
1524.3
60
ELO · Matches
59
1545.3
Current Team ELO
1524.3
1524.3
Current Opponent ELO
1545.3
20.98
Current ELO Difference
-20.98
0.53
Expected score
0.47
60
History Matches
59
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
52.74
Overperformance
50.86
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
59
1.58
PPG
1.49
43.3%
Win rate
40.7%
28.3%
Draw rate
27.1%
28.3%
Loss rate
32.2%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
52.5%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
25.4%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
1.7%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
32
2.10
PPG
1.31
63.3%
Win rate
34.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
28.1%
16.7%
Loss rate
37.5%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
53.1%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
28.1%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
3.1%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
30
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.05
Goals for per game
0.93
66.7%
Scoring rate
64.4%
35.0%
BTTS rate
32.2%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.88
80.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
33.3%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.24
Goals for per game
0.92
80.0%
Scoring rate
64.0%
44.0%
BTTS rate
36.0%
60
History Matches
59
1.05
Goals Mean
0.93
0.99
Goals Std
0.90
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
64.4%
26.7%
Scored 2+ rate
20.3%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
8.5%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.87
Goals against per game
0.75
51.7%
Conceding rate
55.9%
0.63
Goals against per game
0.88
43.3%
Conceding rate
65.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.84
56.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
60
History Matches
59
0.87
Conceded Mean
0.75
1.02
Conceded Std
0.77
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.9%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.7%
0.63
Venue Conceded Mean
0.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
56.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
56.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
59
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.33
1.97
Stability score
1.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
59
11
Lead Matches
14
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.95
12
Trailing Matches
16
25.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.28
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.98
Rest days
83.71
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
30
Long Rest History Matches
33
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
25
1.68
PPG
1.40
52.0%
Win rate
36.0%
12.0%
Draw rate
32.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
32.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
28.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
25
Current Competition Matches
25
1.68
Current Competition PPG
1.40
0.24
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.08
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.12
Portability PPG Range
0.26
89.19
Portability Score
79.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO20.98
PPG0.09
GF0.12
GA0.12
PPG0.28
PPG0.79
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate22.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate2.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.3%
Scored 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Conceded 2+ rate8.1%
Conceded 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.73
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score0.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.28
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.16
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score9.59
Rest days0.27
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO20.98
Current Opponent ELO-20.98
Current ELO Difference41.95
Expected score0.06
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlanta

W
Gimnasia Jujuy1–2Atlanta25 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia Jujuy 47% · missed
L
Gimnasia Y Tiro3–1Atlanta17 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia Y Tiro 43% · hit
W
Atletico DE Rafaela2–3Atlanta4 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico DE Rafaela 44% · missed
L
Atlanta0–1San Martin S.J.30 Aug · home
Pick: Atlanta 47% · missed
L
Patronato2–0Atlanta26 Aug · away
Pick: Patronato 37% · hit

CA Estudiantes

L
All Boys1–0CA Estudiantes2 Nov · away
Pick: CA Estudiantes 36% · missed
D
CA Estudiantes1–1Los Andes25 Oct · home
Pick: CA Estudiantes 45% · missed
L
Godoy Cruz6–3CA Estudiantes18 Oct · away
Pick: Godoy Cruz 39% · hit
D
CA Estudiantes2–2Ferro Carril Oeste30 Aug · home
Pick: CA Estudiantes 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atlanta and CA Estudiantes meet in Primera Nacional on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Atlanta win 39.1%, draw 33.3%, CA Estudiantes win 27.6%. The pick is Atlanta win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.8%. Both teams to score: 41.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.