ScoreProb
Premier League England Round 10 2026

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

Manchester United Home · Elo 1,612
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aston Villa Away · Elo 1,629
Old Trafford, Manchester Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Manchester United win
Manchester United winPick
42.7%
Draw
24.5%
Aston Villa win
32.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.3%
Under 2.541.7%

How much we know

Manchester United history77 matches
Aston Villa history96 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Manchester United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,612 against 1,629. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.66 goals a game over 77 matches for Manchester United, against 1.70 over 96 for Aston Villa.

  • Defences are close

    Manchester United concede 1.30 a game, Aston Villa 1.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Manchester United matches, against 61% for Aston Villa. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Manchester United
Aston Villa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1611.8
ELO
1628.7
77
ELO · Matches
96
1611.8
Current Team ELO
1628.7
1628.7
Current Opponent ELO
1611.8
-16.91
Current ELO Difference
16.91
0.48
Expected score
0.52
77
History Matches
96
0.08
Residual Mean
0.05
56.06
Overperformance
54.46
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
1.70
Goals for per game
1.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
96
1.57
PPG
1.82
41.6%
Win rate
56.3%
32.5%
Draw rate
13.5%
26.0%
Loss rate
30.2%
80.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
54
1.78
PPG
1.48
50.0%
Win rate
44.4%
27.5%
Draw rate
14.8%
22.5%
Loss rate
40.7%
82.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
40
History Matches
54
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.66
Goals for per game
1.70
80.5%
Scoring rate
83.3%
63.6%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.43
80.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
67.5%
BTTS rate
55.6%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
77
History Matches
96
1.66
Goals Mean
1.70
1.23
Goals Std
1.23
80.5%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
51.9%
Scored 2+ rate
51.0%
23.4%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.23
79.2%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.37
82.5%
Conceding rate
74.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
4.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
77
History Matches
96
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.23
0.99
Conceded Std
1.14
37.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.4%
7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.6%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
96
0.98
Result entropy
0.87
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.84
1.67
Stability score
12.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
96
22
Lead Matches
34
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
79.4%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.84
23
Trailing Matches
23
43.5%
Non-loss rate
34.8%
21.7%
Trailing Win Rate
30.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
96
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
1.01
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.21
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
28
0.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
48
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.90
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-4.00
10
Competition Season Count
11
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.88
Portability PPG Range
1.60
57.36
Portability Score
48.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
96
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-16.91
PPG-0.25
GF-0.04
GA0.07
PPG0.00
PPG0.29
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate0.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.18
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches-19
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-11.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.45
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate8.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.73
Portability Score8.59
Rest days1.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-19
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.94
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Current Team ELO-16.91
Current Opponent ELO16.91
Current ELO Difference-33.81
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-19
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Manchester United

W
Manchester United3–2AS Roma3 Nov · home
Pick: AS Roma 41% · missed
L
Chelsea2–0Manchester United31 Oct · away
Pick: Chelsea 63% · hit
L
Manchester United0–3Bournemouth25 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester United 45% · missed
L
Como4–1Manchester United21 Oct · away
Pick: Como 38% · hit
D
Leeds1–1Manchester United18 Oct · away
Pick: Leeds 56% · missed

Aston Villa

L
Barcelona3–0Aston Villa3 Nov · away
Pick: Barcelona 42% · hit
D
Aston Villa1–1Fulham31 Oct · home
Pick: Aston Villa 41% · missed
L
Bournemouth3–0Aston Villa28 Oct · away
Pick: Aston Villa 52% · missed
W
Aston Villa2–1Manchester City24 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester City 57% · missed
W
Aston Villa3–1Viking21 Oct · home
Pick: Viking 37% · missed

About this match

Manchester United and Aston Villa meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Old Trafford, Manchester. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Manchester United win 42.7%, draw 24.5%, Aston Villa win 32.8%. The pick is Manchester United win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.3%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.