ScoreProb
Premier League England Round 10 2026

Sunderland vs Chelsea

Sunderland Home · Elo 1,563
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chelsea Away · Elo 1,599
Stadium of Light, Sunderland Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chelsea win
Sunderland win
30.5%
Draw
23.5%
Chelsea winPick
46.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%

How much we know

Sunderland history75 matches
Chelsea history98 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Chelsea are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chelsea are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,599 against 1,563. On rating alone Chelsea would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Chelsea score far more

    1.07 goals a game over 75 matches for Sunderland, against 1.85 over 98 for Chelsea.

  • Defences are close

    Sunderland concede 1.23 a game, Chelsea 1.26.

  • Chelsea games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Sunderland matches, against 66% for Chelsea. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sunderland
Chelsea
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.2
ELO
1598.9
75
ELO · Matches
98
1563.2
Current Team ELO
1598.9
1598.9
Current Opponent ELO
1563.2
-35.73
Current ELO Difference
35.73
0.45
Expected score
0.55
75
History Matches
98
0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
52.83
Overperformance
53.90
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.72
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
98
1.36
PPG
1.74
37.3%
Win rate
53.1%
24.0%
Draw rate
15.3%
38.7%
Loss rate
31.6%
65.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
42.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.3%
14.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
50
1.41
PPG
1.56
38.2%
Win rate
46.0%
26.5%
Draw rate
18.0%
35.3%
Loss rate
36.0%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
38.2%
Over 2.5 rate
76.0%
14.7%
Over 3.5 rate
42.0%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
34
History Matches
50
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
1.85
64.0%
Scoring rate
83.7%
45.3%
BTTS rate
55.1%
1.06
Goals for per game
1.86
61.8%
Scoring rate
82.0%
41.2%
BTTS rate
66.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
98
1.07
Goals Mean
1.85
1.05
Goals Std
1.45
64.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.7%
30.7%
Scored 2+ rate
52.0%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.26
74.7%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.50
73.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
98
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.10
Conceded Std
1.13
28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.3%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
98
0.98
Result entropy
0.90
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.94
1.90
Stability score
10.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
98
20
Lead Matches
40
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.5%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.84
25
Trailing Matches
27
32.0%
Non-loss rate
40.7%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
98
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
18
0.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.44
46
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
11
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
9
0.74
Portability PPG Std
0.38
2.33
Portability PPG Range
1.20
40.48
Portability Score
56.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
98
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-35.73
PPG-0.38
GF-0.78
GA-0.03
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.15
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate19.7%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate20.2%
History Matches-23
Goals Mean-0.78
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches-23
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-23
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score-8.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches-23
Lead Matches-20
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range1.13
Portability Score-16.32
Rest days2.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-11
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO-35.73
Current Opponent ELO35.73
Current ELO Difference-71.46
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-23
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sunderland

L
Coventry3–1Sunderland31 Oct · away
Pick: Coventry 44% · hit
W
Sunderland3–2Brentford28 Oct · home
Pick: Sunderland 52% · hit
D
Sunderland0–0Leeds25 Oct · home
Pick: Leeds 38% · missed
D
Lech Poznan1–1Sunderland22 Oct · away
Pick: Lech Poznan 58% · missed
L
Bournemouth2–0Sunderland18 Oct · away
Pick: Bournemouth 46% · hit

Chelsea

W
Chelsea2–0Manchester United31 Oct · home
Pick: Chelsea 63% · hit
L
Chelsea0–2Tottenham24 Oct · home
Pick: Chelsea 59% · missed
W
Everton0–2Chelsea17 Oct · away
Pick: Everton 39% · missed
W
Chelsea4–3Brighton30 Aug · home
Pick: Chelsea 47% · hit
W
Fulham2–3Chelsea24 Aug · away
Pick: Chelsea 50% · hit

About this match

Sunderland and Chelsea meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadium of Light, Sunderland. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sunderland win 30.5%, draw 23.5%, Chelsea win 46.0%. The pick is Chelsea win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.2%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.