ScoreProb
Youth Championship Russia Round 29 2026

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 vs Spartak Moskva U19

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 Home · Elo 1,639
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Spartak Moskva U19 Away · Elo 1,509
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 winPick
65.4%
Draw
18.1%
Spartak Moskva U19 win
16.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.7%
Under 2.537.3%

How much we know

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 history49 matches
Spartak Moskva U19 history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Lokomotiv Moskva U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lokomotiv Moskva U19 are rated 130 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,639 against 1,509. On rating alone Lokomotiv Moskva U19 would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Lokomotiv Moskva U19 score more

    2.08 goals a game over 49 matches for Lokomotiv Moskva U19, against 1.59 over 49 for Spartak Moskva U19.

  • Lokomotiv Moskva U19 concede fewer

    Lokomotiv Moskva U19 concede 0.90 a game, Spartak Moskva U19 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Lokomotiv Moskva U19 matches, against 57% for Spartak Moskva U19. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Spartak Moskva U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1639.1
ELO
1509.4
49
ELO · Matches
49
1639.1
Current Team ELO
1509.4
1509.4
Current Opponent ELO
1639.1
129.7
Current ELO Difference
-129.7
0.68
Expected score
0.32
49
History Matches
49
0.13
Residual Mean
0.01
59.54
Overperformance
50.78
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.00
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.10
Goals against per game
2.10
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
2.06
PPG
1.45
61.2%
Win rate
38.8%
22.4%
Draw rate
28.6%
16.3%
Loss rate
32.7%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
38.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
2.13
PPG
1.17
60.9%
Win rate
25.0%
30.4%
Draw rate
41.7%
8.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
47.8%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.08
Goals for per game
1.59
85.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
53.1%
BTTS rate
53.1%
2.43
Goals for per game
1.54
87.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
56.5%
BTTS rate
58.3%
2.70
Goals for per game
1.65
100.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
55.0%
49
History Matches
49
2.08
Goals Mean
1.59
1.65
Goals Std
1.40
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
51.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.9%
32.7%
Scored 3+ rate
30.6%
2.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.90
Goals against per game
1.51
57.1%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.54
56.5%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.85
80.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
49
0.90
Conceded Mean
1.51
0.97
Conceded Std
1.39
24.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
6.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.85
Result entropy
0.99
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.78
15.20
Stability score
0.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
49
21
Lead Matches
20
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.80
6
Trailing Matches
14
50.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.22
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.83
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
2.05
PPG
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
15.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
65.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
20
Current Competition Matches
20
2.05
Current Competition PPG
1.30
1.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.02
Portability PPG Range
0.25
98.14
Portability Score
79.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO129.7
PPG0.61
GF0.49
GA-0.61
PPG0.75
PPG0.96
PPG0.40
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate22.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate14.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.1%
Scored 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.89
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.61
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.93
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score14.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate10.7%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate19.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.55
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.23
Portability Score18.25
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.58
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.78
Current Team ELO129.7
Current Opponent ELO-129.7
Current ELO Difference259.3
Expected score0.36
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

W
Lokomotiv Moskva U195–2Dynamo Makhachkala U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva U19 86% · hit
W
Ural U205–7Lokomotiv Moskva U1916 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv Moskva U19 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Spartak Moskva U19

W
Akademiya Konoplev U200–1Spartak Moskva U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Akademiya Konoplev U20 47% · missed
L
Rubin Kazan U204–2Spartak Moskva U1916 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Moskva U19 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 and Spartak Moskva U19 meet in Youth Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win 65.4%, draw 18.1%, Spartak Moskva U19 win 16.5%. The pick is Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.7%. Both teams to score: 57.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.