ScoreProb
Youth Championship Russia Round 29 2026

Nizhny Novgorod U19 vs Rubin Kazan U20

Nizhny Novgorod U19 Home · Elo 1,430
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rubin Kazan U20 Away · Elo 1,436
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rubin Kazan U20 win
Nizhny Novgorod U19 win
36.9%
Draw
23.9%
Rubin Kazan U20 winPick
39.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.6%
No41.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%

How much we know

Nizhny Novgorod U19 history49 matches
Rubin Kazan U20 history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Rubin Kazan U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,430 against 1,436. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.22 goals a game over 49 matches for Nizhny Novgorod U19, against 1.20 over 49 for Rubin Kazan U20.

  • Defences are close

    Nizhny Novgorod U19 concede 1.84 a game, Rubin Kazan U20 1.69.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Nizhny Novgorod U19 matches, against 53% for Rubin Kazan U20. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nizhny Novgorod U19
Rubin Kazan U20@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1430.0
ELO
1436.5
49
ELO · Matches
49
1430.0
Current Team ELO
1436.5
1436.5
Current Opponent ELO
1430.0
-6.47
Current ELO Difference
6.47
0.49
Expected score
0.51
49
History Matches
49
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.06
44.88
Overperformance
45.57
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.10
3.10
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
3.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
2.21
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
1.00
PPG
1.08
24.5%
Win rate
28.6%
26.5%
Draw rate
22.4%
49.0%
Loss rate
49.0%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
49.0%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.25
PPG
1.21
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.8%
41.7%
Loss rate
45.8%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
45.8%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.20
63.3%
Scoring rate
67.3%
53.1%
BTTS rate
49.0%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.08
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
54.2%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.15
Goals for per game
1.20
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
55.0%
BTTS rate
65.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.22
Goals Mean
1.20
1.22
Goals Std
1.19
63.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
38.8%
Scored 2+ rate
34.7%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.84
Goals against per game
1.69
83.7%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.83
Goals against per game
1.71
75.0%
Conceding rate
62.5%
2.70
Goals against per game
2.20
90.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.84
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.62
Conceded Std
1.55
51.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
24.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.7%
1.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.95
Result entropy
0.95
1.99
Goal Difference Std
2.03
4.77
Stability score
5.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
49
10
Lead Matches
12
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.64
23
Trailing Matches
14
21.7%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.83
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
0.75
PPG
0.75
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
15.0%
Draw rate
15.0%
65.0%
Loss rate
65.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
65.0%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
20
Current Competition Matches
20
0.75
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-1.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.42
Portability PPG Range
0.56
70.30
Portability Score
64.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-6.47
PPG-0.08
GF0.02
GA0.14
PPG0.00
PPG0.04
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate4.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate4.1%
Scored 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.70
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate6.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.77
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score-0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate31.7%
Lead Points Retention0.29
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate14.6%
Trailing Win Rate4.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.55
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score6.21
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Current Team ELO-6.47
Current Opponent ELO6.47
Current ELO Difference-12.95
Expected score-0.02
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nizhny Novgorod U19

L
Ural U201–0Nizhny Novgorod U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Ural U20 52% · hit
L
Krasnodar U195–0Nizhny Novgorod U1916 Oct · away
Pick: Krasnodar U19 79% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rubin Kazan U20

L
Rubin Kazan U202–3Almaz Antey U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Rubin Kazan U20 46% · missed
W
Rubin Kazan U204–2Spartak Moskva U1916 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Moskva U19 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nizhny Novgorod U19 and Rubin Kazan U20 meet in Youth Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Nizhny Novgorod U19 win 36.9%, draw 23.9%, Rubin Kazan U20 win 39.2%. The pick is Rubin Kazan U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.9%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.