ScoreProb
K3 League South Korea Round 26 2026

Daejeon Korail vs Yeoju Sejong

Daejeon Korail Home · Elo 1,563
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Yeoju Sejong Away · Elo 1,494
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Daejeon Korail win
Daejeon Korail winPick
51.5%
Draw
23.4%
Yeoju Sejong win
25.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.8%
No52.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%

How much we know

Daejeon Korail history51 matches
Yeoju Sejong history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Daejeon Korail are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Daejeon Korail are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,563 against 1,494. On rating alone Daejeon Korail would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Daejeon Korail score more

    1.75 goals a game over 51 matches for Daejeon Korail, against 1.17 over 52 for Yeoju Sejong.

  • Daejeon Korail concede fewer

    Daejeon Korail concede 0.98 a game, Yeoju Sejong 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Daejeon Korail matches, against 42% for Yeoju Sejong. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Daejeon Korail
Yeoju Sejong@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1562.8
ELO
1493.6
51
ELO · Matches
52
1562.8
Current Team ELO
1493.6
1493.6
Current Opponent ELO
1562.8
69.17
Current ELO Difference
-69.17
0.60
Expected score
0.40
51
History Matches
52
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
53.62
Overperformance
49.58
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
0.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.00
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.54
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
52
1.75
PPG
1.27
51.0%
Win rate
32.7%
21.6%
Draw rate
28.8%
27.5%
Loss rate
38.5%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
49.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
26
1.83
PPG
1.46
56.5%
Win rate
38.5%
13.0%
Draw rate
30.8%
30.4%
Loss rate
30.8%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
23
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.75
Goals for per game
1.17
76.5%
Scoring rate
73.1%
39.2%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.23
73.9%
Scoring rate
73.1%
26.1%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.21
68.4%
Scoring rate
78.9%
26.3%
BTTS rate
63.2%
51
History Matches
52
1.75
Goals Mean
1.17
1.64
Goals Std
1.01
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
73.1%
51.0%
Scored 2+ rate
28.8%
27.5%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.29
56.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.15
47.8%
Conceding rate
73.1%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.26
52.6%
Conceding rate
78.9%
51
History Matches
52
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.09
Conceded Std
1.03
25.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.5%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
52
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.28
6.32
Stability score
0.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
52
14
Lead Matches
9
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.74
10
Trailing Matches
18
20.0%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.88
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.23
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
19
1.68
PPG
1.32
47.4%
Win rate
31.6%
26.3%
Draw rate
36.8%
26.3%
Loss rate
31.6%
52.6%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
36.8%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.89
19
Current Competition Matches
19
1.68
Current Competition PPG
1.32
0.68
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.05
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.05
66.88
Portability Score
96.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO69.17
PPG0.48
GF0.57
GA-0.31
PPG0.37
PPG0.36
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate18.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate25.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.63
Scored 1+ rate3.4%
Scored 2+ rate22.1%
Scored 3+ rate14.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate18.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.46
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.69
Stability score5.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.92
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate19.0%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.37
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.74
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.52
Portability Score-29.34
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.53
Current Team ELO69.17
Current Opponent ELO-69.17
Current ELO Difference138.3
Expected score0.20
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Daejeon Korail

W
Mokpo City1–3Daejeon Korail1 Nov · away
Pick: Daejeon Korail 55% · hit
W
Daejeon Korail2–1Yangpyeong29 Aug · home
Pick: Daejeon Korail 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Yeoju Sejong

D
Yeoju Sejong3–3Gyeongju HNP31 Oct · home
Pick: Yeoju Sejong 39% · missed
L
Mokpo City1–0Yeoju Sejong30 Aug · away
Pick: Yeoju Sejong 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Daejeon Korail and Yeoju Sejong meet in K3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Daejeon Korail win 51.5%, draw 23.4%, Yeoju Sejong win 25.1%. The pick is Daejeon Korail win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 47.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.